Michael Worobey’s Wobbly Research into the Early History of HIV

Michael Worobey’s wobbly research into the early history of HIV.

In late October and early November 2007 there was coverage in several media outlets (mainly in the US) of a newly-published study entitled “The Emergence of HIV/AIDS in the Americas and Beyond”. The lead author was Michael Worobey, an assistant professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona in Tucson.

Worobey’s study focuses on the early spread of HIV-1 and AIDS out of Africa – and to the rest of the world. It concludes that, after it emerged from Africa, the first staging-post of pandemic HIV-1 was on the island of Haiti, and that it was from there that the virus later moved on to the United States and Canada. (The phrase “pandemic HIV-1” is used to mean the type of HIV that is found predominantly in North America and Europe: the so-called “Euro-American strain” of HIV-1, known officially as HIV-1 Group M, sub-type B.)

In itself this seems a reasonable hypothesis, one that was first mentioned in the non-medical literature as long ago as 1987, when it was proposed in Randy Shilts’ seminal book on the AIDS epidemic, “And The Band Played On” [New York: St Martin’s Press]. It is one of several hypotheses that seek to explain how the human immunodeficiency virus arrived on the North American continent, three of which are outlined below.

Hypothesis 1. The Africa – Haiti – North America transmission hypothesis favoured by Worobey is also supported by historical data, for it is known that thousands of Haitian teachers and technocrats worked in the Democratic Republic of Congo (the DRC, the former Belgian Congo) in the 1960s, after the exodus of Belgian officials in and after 1960, the year of Independence, left a critical vacuum. . (The DRC is now almost universally accepted as representing the initial hearth of pandemic AIDS.) Haitians were ideal replacements for the Belgians, being well-educated, French-speaking, black – and more than eager to leave a country dominated by the dictatorships of the Duvaliers.

Hypothesis 2. This hypothesis proposes that subtype B might have travelled straight from Africa to North America where it infected a gay or bisexual man who later infected a Haitian counterpart (probably a bisexual, and very possibly during a vacation). Again, there is some historical support, for during the 1970s gay cruises from the US were extremely popular, and almost all featured Haiti as one of the most favoured stopovers.

Hypothesis 3. In The River, I wrote about another possibility: that the virus was exported first from Africa to Europe (and in particular to West Germany), and thence to Haiti and the US. In support of this, the first two retrospectively diagnosed AIDS cases in West Germany date from 1976 and 1977, and thus predate the earliest recorded gay cases from the Americas; both were male patients who died in January 1979 (one of whom is known to have been an active gay/bisexual). A third significant early case was a gay German chef who died of AIDS in Manhattan in 1980, after spending the three previous years working in Haiti, where he first displayed symptoms. This man apparently originated from Gelsenkirchen, the same city where Zaire (as the DRC was called from the 1970s to the 1990s) played two of its three games in the 1974 World Cup; thousands of Zairois came to Germany to support their team. Where, one wonders, was this man infected – in Haiti or Germany?

Hypothesis 4.

There is also a fourth possible hypothesis about how HIV-1 might have arrived in North America and Haiti, one that was tentatively advanced in my book “The River” in 1999. The clue that prompted this hypothesis was an apparently anachronistic historical detail. The earliest convincing case of AIDS in the United States involved a female baby born in New Jersey in 1973 or 1974 to a sixteen-year-old girl, who was identified as a drug-injector who had had multiple male sex partners. The infant died in 1979 after having shown the symptoms of AIDS for 5 years; her stored tissues later tested positive for HIV-1. Because the baby’s case of AIDS predates any other known AIDS case in North America by at least four years, it would seem to have real significance.

The strong indications are that she was infected perinatally by her teenage mother, who must have been born at some point between 1956 and 1958. Might it be, I wondered, that 16 years earlier, the mother had been one of the infants born to women prisoners at Clinton State Farms in Clinton, New Jersey in the ten years beginning 1955, nearly all of whom were experimentally vaccinated with Hilary Koprowski’s oral polio vaccines?

From late 1955 onwards, Koprowski and his team used Clinton Farms as a convenient North American testing-ground for their early OPVs, and it is therefore eminently possible that they tested not only batches of vaccine that had been produced in the US, but also vaccine batches that had been prepared locally in the Belgian Congo.

Former Koprowski aide Stanley Plotkin has reported that this Clinton hypothesis has been disproved, but I can demonstrate that his claim is incorrect.

There is considerably more to report on this subject, but I feel that this is not the right time to place these matters in the public domain.

[However, more detailed information about the early history of HIV-1 and AIDS in North America, Haiti, and West Germany may be found in chapters 3 to 5 of The River (pages 55 to 88), and more about the Clinton hypothesis appears on pages 692-700 and 778-779.]

The inherent bias of Worobey’s paper.

In his Americas paper [PNAS; 2007; 104 (47); 18566-18570; official e-pub October 31st, 2007; formal publication November 20th, 2007], Dr Worobey states that his analysis of the sequences of 122 persons infected with HIV-1 Group M subtype B indicates a 99.8% probability that Hypothesis 1 is correct, and that the subtype B virus travelled from Africa to Haiti to North America, and not by any other route.

On the face of it, the conclusions of Worobey’s paper seem reasonable enough. But there is a huge caveat about this work.

The 122 subtype B sequences on which the work is based consist of five sequences from early Haitian AIDS patients tested in the USA, and 117 subtype B sequences selected from the HIV/AIDS Sequence Database, (after attempts were made to exclude atypical strains and strains which suggested that they might be recombinant in origin). The five early Haitian sequences all apparently came from a Florida doctor, Arthur Pitchenik, who had gathered samples from Haitian men who had emigrated to the US in or after 1975, and whose blood was taken in either 1982 or 1983, after they had first displayed symptoms of AIDS. (It would seem, therefore, that some of these men may have been living in the US for 7 or 8 years before they fell sick.)

As additional historical background (not considered by Worobey), the first plausible case of AIDS from Haiti itself was a retrospectively identified case from 1978, and 7 further plausible Haitian cases have been identified from the years 1978 and 1979. Four of these eight cases from the 1970s were from Haiti itself, and four involved Haitians living in Canada and the US.

Save for the intriguing paediatric AIDS case from New Jersey mentioned above, the first American to show symptoms of AIDS did so in the first quarter of 1978. A total of 12 US cases (11 in gays/bisexuals) were retrospectively identified from 1978 and 1979 (one of whom may have been Haitian; [Selik RM, “Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) Trends in the United States, 1978-1982”; Am. J. Med.; 1984; 76; 493-500.] (However, in other papers the first Haitian with AIDS in the US is documented as presenting in early 1980.)

By the end of 1981 there were hundreds of American AIDS cases, and Haitians were one of four risk groups who were indiscreetly described by certain CDC scientists as “The 4 Hs”: homosexuals, heroin injectors, haemophiliacs and Haitians.

Of course, this historical background begs a question. Where are the viral sequences from the early AIDS cases from the US – the cases that did not involve Haitian immigrants?

The earliest US HIV-1 sequences included in Worobey’s study are eight sequences dating from 1981 and one from 1982. Although the eight 1981 sequences predate the earliest Haitian sequences in the study by one year, this may not be very significant. This is because, as far as I can determine, all nine of these early US sequences are from gay/bisexual men, and the epidemiological evidence suggests that HIV-1 only entered the hothouse atmosphere of the gay bath-houses in 1977-8, after which the virus spread like wildfire. (The fact that the first people in the world to be identified with AIDS were gay American men was probably a function of the fact that multiple partner exchange, especially in the bath-houses, allowed a large number of gay men to become infected with HIV very rapidly. Partly because of the weight of numbers, and partly because multi-partner gay sex also encourages a wide range of other infections, it was almost inevitable that some of these gay men became “fast progressors”, and progressed rapidly to showing symptoms of AIDS. We now know that roughly 1% of HIV-infected persons display frank symptoms of AIDS in less than a year.)

It is therefore apparent that many of the US AIDS cases who provide the 1981 and 1982 sequences in Worobey’s study may only have been infected with HIV since 1978-1980. By contrast, the five Haitian AIDS patients tested in 1982-3 may not have been fast progressors, and may well have been HIV-infected before leaving Haiti as early as 1975. (It is worth noting that 1975 represented the peak year for “boat people” – Haitians who escaped to the US by sea.)

In short, Worobey finds that the five Haitian sequences are more ancient (set deeper in the phylogenetic tree) than the US sequences, but this may merely, or mainly, be a function of the fact that the Haitian patients were infected in an earlier year, as in all likelihood they were. So what he may actually be recording here is the year of initial infection.

To guard against this possibility, he surely needs to include in the study some sequences from US citizens who were infected back in the 1970s.

And indeed, there is no obvious reason why earlier US HIV-positive serum samples were not also studied. Huge numbers of serum samples were taken from gay and bisexual American men for many different studies throughout the 1970s. In particular, starting in 1977-8, sera were routinely gathered from hundreds of gay and bisexual men in five different North American cities (including New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco), as part of the Five Cities Study. The earliest retrospectively proven HIV-positive serum sample comes from a gay man tested in New York on September 6th, 1977 – but within the next 27 months a viral explosion took place, for both the San Francisco and New York cohorts referred to above were retrospectively found to have levels of HIV-positivity of above 10% by the end of 1979!

Yet as far as I know, there has never been any molecular analysis of HIV-1 viruses from these 1970s sera, or from the stored tissues or sera of US AIDS cases from the 1970s.

What, I wonder, would be the result if the US sequences included in Worobey’s study had included sequences obtained from the very beginning of the gay epidemic, or from one or more of the seven HIV-positive babies (all born to drug-injecting mothers in New York and San Francisco, many of whom may also have been prostitutes) in 1977? [See River, pages 71-72.] Or what if his study had included a viral sequence from the HIV-infected baby born to a drug-injecting New Jersey mother in 1973-4 (alluded to in Hypothesis 4 above)?

I believe that if sequences from early US AIDS patients (or, indeed, early German AIDS patients) had also been included in this study, the outcome of the molecular analysis might have been different.

For instance, such a study might conclude that HIV-1 travelled first from Africa to the Americas, and was then exported via a US infectee to Haiti, where it first entered the gay/bisexual community, and was then re-exported back into the US and Canada a few years later, perhaps via a gay cruiser, or else one of the boat people, thousands of whom fled Haiti for Florida from 1975 onwards. Or else such a study might conclude that the virus had actually travelled from Africa to Germany to Haiti to the US.

In short, it may well be that the findings of Worobey’s study were almost inevitable, given his choice of samples. Under these circumstances, I would propose that his conclusions (that HIV-1 arrived in Haiti before it came to the US) cannot be relied upon. When a study is biased in its selection of samples, it is hard to draw any meaningful conclusions.

The strange dearth of early molecular data from the US.

The lack of any molecular studies of early HIV-positive stored sera and tissues from the United States is remarkable, and deserves further comment.

It would seem that North American doctors are keen to do molecular analysis on potential AIDS cases and HIV infectees from Africa (many studies); the UK (the famous case, apparently later refuted, from 1959: the so-called “Manchester sailor”) and the Caribbean (Worobey’s research), yet there is apparently a total lack of studies of early US and Canadian HIV-infected sera and tissues, and thus no molecular analysis of early North American HIV sequences.

This great gap in the published research also extends to epidemiological studies of the US epidemic. Beginning in 1990, I conducted interviews with doctors from the CDC and elsewhere who were involved in the early days of the American AIDS epidemic. In retrospect, one thing I repeatedly noticed was that nobody from the CDC was willing to talk about the earliest cases.

People such as Jim Curran, the epidemiologist who was the first head of AIDS research at the CDC, and who was the last author of the aforementioned “AIDS trends in the US, 1978-82” paper, were notably reticent about these crucial cases. I was asking for details such as dates, places and symptoms, and not for the names of patients, so there was no need for excessive confidentiality. Despite this, I met with a wall of silence. The only witnesses who were more forthcoming on this topic were a couple of doctors who had left the CDC, and with their cautious help (allied to information obtained from Shilts’s epic book, “And The Band Played On”), I managed to reconstruct a fair part of the early US epidemic (see Chapter 3 of The River).

Many questionable decisions were made in those days. For instance, Shilts relates that the notebooks of the epidemiologist who had single-handedly tracked the early spread of AIDS in San Francisco were shredded by the local public health department within two months of her retirement, with patient confidentiality apparently cited as the reason. These days, such wilful destruction of vital epidemiological data would appear breathtakingly irresponsible.

For studies of ancient sera and tissues, the names of patients or serum donors are automatically withheld, which removes the risk of compromising patient confidentiality. This makes it truly remarkable that no virological studies of early US samples, and no molecular analyses of early US HIV-1 viruses, have yet been carried out (or at least reported in the medical literature).

Is it possible that these vital ancient samples have been autoclaved (just as that early epidemiological data from California was apparently shredded)? I very much doubt it. But in that case, why the dearth of early HIV-1 studies from the US itself? Is it possible that there are concerns that such analyses might reveal some inconvenient or embarrassing information?

The unique prehistory of Subtype B.

There is one further strange historical detail that needs to be mentioned. From the late 1970s onwards, HIV-1 Group M Subtype B experienced epidemic spread in North America and Europe (and indeed in the rest of the world outside Africa). In fact, in many parts of the world outside Africa, it quickly became the dominant strain of HIV.

And yet in Africa itself subtype B apparently either never existed, or else quickly died out. Indeed, until the last few years, the only strains of HIV-1 subtype B ever detected in Africa came from three or four blood samples obtained in the 1990s, which in all likelihood represented viruses that had been re-imported to Africa from the West.

The only plausible candidate for a genuine African subtype B virus was one that was retrospectively reported in 2001. It came from a serum sample from a Congolese woman from Kinshasa who was originally tested at some point between 1983 and 1985. Some 15 years later, her virus was among a group of HIV-1 viruses from the DRC that was sequenced by Tom Folks’ retrovirology team from the CDC with the results published as: M.L. Kalish, T.M. Folks et al., “Evidence for the Presence of all Known HIV-1 Group M Subtypes and Some Unclassifiable Strains in Kinshasa, Zaire, in the Early to Mid-1980s”; 8th Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections; 2001; Abstract 268.

Every single one of the major subtypes of pandemic HIV-1 (ten, in those days) had been found in this early sampling of the city of Kinshasa – a unique and hugely significant result.

The presence of a subtype B virus in that city was especially fascinating. In 2002 I e-mailed Folks, asking whether he thought that this 1983-5 subtype B had been a local virus (ie one originating from Zaire, now called the DRC) or a Western re-import, and he e-mailed back: “Only a hunch, but I would guess home (local) infection.”

I found this implausible, in that it was his own team that had sequenced the virus, and yet we then heard nothing more about it – as we surely would have done, if this had been the only genuine sample of African HIV-1 subtype B in existence.

Five years later I asked Folks (now retired from the CDC) the same question, and on December 16th, 2007 he e-mailed back a different answer: “Yes, I agree, it would be strange to find it [the subtype B sequence] there [in Kinshasa] if it were not reimported, but of course, no proof.”

It appears, therefore, that (alone of all the subtypes) the molecular biologists have found no genuine examples in Africa of HIV-1 subtype B.

Of course, the ancestor of all subtype B viruses could still have existed in the DRC back in the 60s, and could have caused onward spread to Haiti, the US and the rest of the world, before dying out in the DRC itself.

Alternatively, the OPV theory (and in particular the Clinton sub-hypothesis outlined above) clearly provide another possible explanation.

This sub-hypothesis would beggar the following questions:

  1. What if the original subtype B virus existed in a vaccine batch that was prepared in the Belgian Congo in the 1950s, but was either never given to humans in that country, or else used only on a limited scale in the Congo, causing only sporadic infections that were insufficient to spark a full-scale subtype B outbreak in that continent?
  2. And what is this same batch was among those sent back to the US for laboratory testing, and was also tested in vivo on an infant or infants from the women’s prison in Clinton, New Jersey?

Depending on one’s beliefs about origins, this scenario may or may not seem far-fetched. But I believe that it is no more far-fetched than the scenario proposed by Michael Worobey, which is based on a whole series of assumptions, none of which are scientifically proven.

When one examines the information (including historical details) available from a number of different sources, rather than making a theoretical analysis that is solely based on a phylogenetic dating theory that has been shown to be inherently flawed, it is revealed that Worobey’s near-certainties are actually based on rather flimsy ground.

Hypothesis 1 (the Africa-to-Haiti hypothesis favoured by Worobey) is a perfectly plausible hypothesis, and may indeed reflect what actually happened historically. However, I firmly believe there is nothing in Worobey’s paper that disproves Hypotheses 2, 3 or 4.

Worobey’s wobbly dating analysis.

In a press release dated October 29th, 2007, Professor Worobey also proposed some dates to flesh out his transmission scenario. He suggested that HIV-1 arrived in Haiti from Africa in “about 1966”, and that the first American was infected with a Haitian version of the virus in “about 1969”. This was sexy stuff, and it engendered coverage in several newspapers.

The latter date is somewhat earlier than many previous estimates, such as those which placed the arrival of HIV-1 in the United States in the early to middle 1970s, mainly on the basis of epidemiological analysis. It requires HIV-1 to have been circulating in the US for 12 years before AIDS was first recognised and reported (in Los Angeles in 1981). I find this rather implausible, but it is certainly not impossible.

What is far less plausible, and in fact highly controversial, is the use of phylogenetic or molecular analysis to try to date the age of HIV-1 isolates.

A brief aside. The early molecular analysis of immunodeficiency viruses by people such as Beatrice Hahn, Paul Sharp and Bette Korber was incredibly useful. It illustrated, for instance, that a simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) discovered in a Tanzanian baboon had been acquired from a local African green monkey (perhaps one that the baboon had attacked or eaten); this was one of the earliest proofs that cross-species transmission of SIVs occurred in the wild.

And the systematic surveys of SIVs in primates that these and other doctors are currently conducting in different parts of Africa (which have recently discovered an SIV in the gorilla, one that is related to – and probably derived from – chimpanzee SIV) continues to this day to provide dramatic and important new information.

But unfortunately, as the activities of these researchers have grown and their grants have multiplied, some of them have over-reached themselves and have started to make exaggerated or misplaced claims.

Their attempts to date the events on their family tree of SIVs and HIVs is perhaps the best example of science that is based on assertion, rather than on solid scientific principles.

I strongly believe that their research into the “molecular dating of HIV” is inherently unscientific, because it is based on a false premise. This premise is that HIV-1 mutates at a constant rate, according to a molecular clock that beats like a metronome – and that this mutation rate can be measured and used to calculate the dates of significant events in the virus’s early history.

Or to put it in Worobey’s own words, from an interview he did with National Public Radio on November 12th, 2007: “Because viruses mutate at a relatively constant rate, you can actually calibrate what we call a molecular clock, and when we did that we find [sic] that the US epidemic basically – all of it – traces back to what looks like a single migration event of the virus, somewhere around 1969, plus or minus a couple of years.”

In reality, this molecular clock approach is a reasonable approach for dating DNA-based viruses like smallpox, which evolve almost exclusively through mutation. However, it begins to fail for RNA-based viruses, and in particular retroviruses, where a substantial degree of evolution occurs through recombination. Recombination occurs when two different viruses meet inside a cell, and exchange portions of each other’s genomes (much as a male and female human have sex and produce a baby with the genetic characteristics of both parents).

Recombination is a totally different form of evolution from mutation, and it cannot be measured by a molecular clock.

HIV-1 is the most recombinogenic human virus (ie the human virus most prone to recombination) known to medical science. A study published back in July 2002 spelt out just how recombinogenic this virus is. In its title it referred to “massive recombination” and it revealed that recombination is four to ten times more common than mutation in both HIV and SIV. [S. Wain-Hobson et al., “Network analysis of human and simian immunodeficiency virus sequence sets reveals massive recombination resulting in shorter pathways”; J. Gen Virol.; 2002; 84; 885-895.] This important paper also revealed the direct implication of this finding: that HIV sequences were in reality younger (ie closer to the present) than had been anticipated by molecular dating analysis.

A commendably fair-minded commentary on this “really interesting and beautiful study” written by Science staff writer and AIDS specialist Jon Cohen (himself no friend to the OPV theory in the past) concluded that it “raises significant questions about phylogeny trees that attempt to date the origin of HIV, all of which intentionally discard suspected recombinants to make the data interpretable”. [Science; 2002; 297; 312-313.]

As Wain-Hobson and Cohen highlight, all that geneticists such as Michael Worobey can do in their dating attempts is to exclude obvious recombinant HIV-1 sequences from their analyses, so that what they are left with are sequences that have supposedly evolved only through mutation.

In reality, however, HIV-1 sequences that recombined early in their evolutionary history can no longer be identified or recognised, and therefore cannot be excluded from the geneticists’ analyses. In short, there is no way of knowing whether or not any given HIV-1 sequence features ancient recombination.

What this means in practice is that evolutionary dating analysis of HIV-1 is inherently flawed, and that it tends to promote dates of origin that are (a) unreliable, and (b) too far back in the past.

Perhaps the best-known example of HIV-1 phylogenetic dating was published in 2000 by Professor Bette Korber’s team at the HIV Sequence Database at Los Alamos. This was a paper published in Science, which proposed that the Most Recent Common Ancestor (MRCA) of pandemic HIV-1 existed in about 1931 (plus or minus 10 or 15 years). [Korber B. et al.; “Timing the ancestor of the HIV-1 pandemic strains”; Science; 2000; 288; 1789-1796.] Effectively, Korber was proposing a date of origin for the HIV-1 virus in Africa, and thus a start date for the global AIDS pandemic.

The publication of the paper was promoted by a huge press conference, and it naturally garnered world-wide headlines. The science it proposed was elegantly presented, but it was essentially fantasy.

It is noteworthy that Michael Worobey stresses that his dates for the arrival of HIV-1 in Haiti and the US are broadly consistent with this 1931 start date.

In reality, the principal HIV-1 molecular daters turn out to be quite a small group of American, British and Belgian scientists who tend in practice to come up with dates that are consistent with Korber’s ancestral date of 1931. This in turn may mean one of two things:

  1. That the work of all these scientists from Korber onwards is remarkably accurate, even though they are using a molecular clock to try to measure the mutation rate of a virus that evolves mainly through recombination, or
  2. That the findings in Korber’s original study were dubious, and that all HIV-1 molecular dating studies since then have been equally dubious, as they have strived for internal consistency with Korber. In short, that these researchers’ results tend automatically to be self-confirming.

I personally favour scenario (b), and I am not alone. Many scientists with whom I have spoken and corresponded, including molecular biologists and population geneticists, believe that in reality, the molecular dating studies of HIV-1 represent a 21st century version of alchemy, the medieval science which claimed that base metals could be “transmuted” into gold. In the Middle Ages, alchemy was an accepted science. Nowadays, alchemy is viewed with gentle amusement, since it is recognised that the basic premises and assumptions underlying that “science” were wrong.

With the molecular dating of HIV-1 so many different parameters are possible, most notably the selection or rejection of different HIV-1 sequences and the choice of the specific model used to create the molecular clock, that one can arrive at any one of a rather wide variety of dates in the final results column. It therefore becomes relatively easy to come up with dates of origin that tie in with one’s preconceptions, and to convince oneself that one is producing great science when all one is actually doing is reflecting and repeating dubious science of the past.

The latest type of model that the HIV-1 molecular daters (including Worobey in his “Americas” study) like to use is called a “relaxed molecular clock”, which allows the mutation rate to vary among the various HIV-1 sequences. In lay terms this means a clock that does not always act like a clock. With such a clock, it is not so difficult to bend time.

However, a recent key paper from this school of phylogenetic daters (Anne-Mieke Vandamme’s group from the University of Leuven, a seat of learning which was a major collaborator on Koprowski’s 1950s CHAT vaccination trials in Africa) contains rather revealing information about the limitations of these procedures. It concedes how difficult it is, even among the major HIV-1 subtypes, to identify recombinant sequences, and states the following: “As current phylogenetic methods are not capable of accurately reconstructing the evolutionary histories of highly recombinant strains, it may never be possible to correctly assign for all strains which one is the recombinant and which one is the parent.” [Abecasis AB, Vandamme AM et al.; “Recombination confounds the early history of human immunodeficiency virus type 1; subtype G is a circulating recombinant form”; J. Virol.; 2007; 81 (16); 8543-8551.]

(Finally, it is worth pointing out that Vandamme’s group at Leuven is not unique, for nearly all the American, British and Belgian phylogenetic daters mentioned above are either from labs which collaborated directly with Koprowski in the CHAT trials in Africa in the 1950s, or else are scientists who are known to have had contacts in the recent past either with Koprowski’s former deputy Stanley Plotkin, or Plotkin’s group of anti-OPV collaborators. Whether this is significant or coincidental in not yet apparent.)

Possible explanations for the phylogenetic dating mumbo-jumbo.

Outside the heady atmosphere of the molecular dating labs, an increasing number of scientists have over the last seven or eight years realised that molecular dating analyses for HIV-1 are unreliable. The fact that relatively few have spoken up about it is mainly a factor of the way Science is conducted today.

The origins-of-AIDS controversy is one of the most politically-loaded debates in Science. Over the years many scientists (some of whom are generally regarded as eminent) have spoken to me off-the-record, on the basis that I never mention their names. There is widespread concern that getting involved in this debate on the “wrong” side could turn out to be injurious to your health (ie to your funding and career prospects).

This fear may seem incredible, or exaggerated. If you think so, then cast your mind back to the 1930s, when millions of Germans (and indeed, Britons and Americans and others) found it acceptable, or possible, to cast a blind eye to what the Third Reich was doing in Germany. Let me be absolutely clear: I am not suggesting that the HIV-1 geneticists are Nazis! I am merely underlining that there are many ways in which (and levels on which) beliefs, whether or not they are sincerely held, can be transformed into dogma. I am also stressing the fairly obvious fact that because the man and woman in the street (and indeed, the scientist in the lab) don’t have the time to investigate every scientific issue for themselves, they tend in practice to accept much of what they are told by scientists who have spent years studying those particular issues, and who are perceived as experts. In reality, it is not that easy to question the expertise of “experts”.

The dissenting scientists referred to above all expressed deep-seated scepticism about the molecular dating of HIV-1, but insisted that I treat their words as either unattributable or off-the-record. Of course, I have respected their wishes. However, there are also some highly experienced scientists who have spoken up on the record. I am keeping some up my sleeve for now, but two who have come out publicly are professors Gerry Myers and Mikkel Schierup.

In 2000, Professor Myers had recently retired from his job as head of Group T-10 at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (the group responsible for compiling the HIV Sequence Database), where he had been Bette Korber’s boss. Despite having health problems at the time, Myers wrote an intelligent and powerful critique of Korber’s HIV-1 dating work. Gerry Myers was not well enough to fly to London to present this paper at the Royal Society conference on “Origins of HIV and the AIDS epidemic”, but it was presented instead by a young statistician who had co-authored the paper, Tom Burr. [T. Burr, G. Hyman and G. Myers, “The origin of AIDS: Darwinian or Lamarckian?”; Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (London) B; 2001; 356; 877-888].

However, five months earlier I had flown to Los Alamos to meet with Myers (for the second time) in order to discuss the molecular analysis of HIV-1. A classicist by training, Myers is a logical and independent thinker, and during our April 2000 meeting he gave me a clear sense of the extent of the disagreement and uncertainty that had existed among the HIV phylogeneticists about how best to undertake the dating of ancient HIV-1 isolates.

In his Royal Society paper, Professor Myers found Professor Korber’s dating approach inherently flawed and questioned some of the specifics of her work. However, as he has told me and others on several occasions, he feels constrained from presenting a more sustained critique, partly because Korber is a personal friend of himself and his family.

Another open critic was the Danish population geneticist Mikkel Schierup, whose paper entitled “Recombination and Phylogenetic Analysis of HIV-1” was first presented at the 2001 meeting on HIV origins at the Lincei Academy in Rome; [Atti dei Convegni Lincei; 2003; 187; 231-245]. Schierup’s paper ably dismantled the molecular dating approach for HIV-1 by using deliciously understated scientific language. Sadly, the closing speaker at that conference (Robin Weiss) together with Paul Sharp (who also spoke at the conference, but who later withdrew his paper from the published proceedings) and his fellow HIV daters have found it easiest to ignore the import of Schierup’s paper.

So why is misleading research based on the molecular dating of HIV-1 promoted and published in the pages of the major scientific journals? The answer may be fairly simple. It ties in with the vague but non-controversial bushmeat hypothesis of origin of AIDS, which proposes that the AIDS pandemic arose through Africans eating or butchering chimpanzees in or around the 1930s. Moreover, it appears to refute the Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) hypothesis of origin, which proposes that AIDS arose through the experimental vaccination of some 900,000 Africans in the Belgian Congo (now the DRC), and what is now Rwanda and Burundi, with vaccine grown in chimpanzee cells in the late 1950s.

Unfortunately, Michael Worobey now appears to be a committed molecular dater, just like his mentors, molecular biologists Bette Korber and Paul Sharp. As a result, he tends to come out with sweeping and unreliable statements. For instance, in his November 12th, 2007 interview on NPR, he said the following: “[T]here’s a lot of evidence that [the HIV-1] virus was circulating in central Africa for many, many years before it emerged elsewhere in the world.” Worobey went on: “That evidence comes in part from” the fact that similar viruses are found in African apes and monkeys, and that these primates are sold as bushmeat in African markets.

That was all the explanation he gave. In reality, this constitutes no evidence at all, merely a hypothesised mode of transmission which has never been supported by a single compelling piece of evidence.

I believe that Worobey’s claim (that HIV-1 had been circulating for “many, many years before it emerged elsewhere in the world”) is unreliable. Even if one accepts Korber’s date of 1931 plus or minus 10 or 15 years for the emergence of HIV-1 in Africa (which, remember, is an entirely theoretical calculation), this would place emergence in Africa only some 25-35 years before Worobey’s date of export to the rest of the world. This is hardly “many, many years before”, especially when one considers that Africans must have been killing, skinning and eating SIV-infected primates for hundreds of thousands of years!

Given the premises and vague assumptions of the bushmeat school, I would have expected HIV-1 to have emerged in Africa not in 1931, but in 1931 BC….or perhaps 1931000 BC!

The question that the molecular daters prefer not to ask.

I often wonder how these HIV phylogenetic daters can avoid asking themselves what seems to me to be the key question. The question is this. Why is it that, according to them, ten separate transfers of SIV from African primates to man have all occurred during the recent past (in fact, during the middle part of the twentieth century), whereas Africans have been eating and butchering chimps and other monkeys since time immemorial?

According to their own analysis, these ten primate-to-human transfers comprise seven transfers of sooty mangabey SIV to make HIV-2 Types A to G (only two of which, Types A and B, have spread further among humans to cause actual human outbreaks), and three transfers to humans of chimpanzee SIV to make HIV-1 Group M (causing pandemic AIDS), Group N and Group O.

I believe that these geneticists are actually caught in a cleft stick. On the one hand, they cannot argue that HIV and AIDS existed as far back as the early 19th century, because it is easy to prove that those millions of Africans who were forcibly taken to the Americas during the Slave Trade were not infected with any of the HIVs. So this is where their much-vaunted phylogenetic dating analysis comes in. This allows them to argue that those ten proposed transfers of SIVs to Homo sapiens occurred during the 20th century, but only during the first half of the twentieth century, a few vital years before the polio vaccination campaigns of the 1950s and 1960s!

The molecular biologists contend that the index case of the AIDS pandemic, the very first HIV-1, existed in 1931. So why, according to them, was no AIDS seen in Africa before the 1960s or 1970s? They argue that it must have been there, but went unrecognised (a) because the numbers infected were smaller, and (b) because these early cases were instead diagnosed as one of the typical AIDS indicator diseases, such as tuberculosis.

To my mind (and here I am confident of the support of many Africa-based clinicians), this rather jesuitical argument actually demonstrates a basic misunderstanding, or misinterpretation, of the clinical presentation of African AIDS. In reality, AIDS very rarely presents as just a single disease such as TB. In reality it usually presents with a striking range of opportunistic infections (such as oral thrush, and certain specific – and untreatable – dermatological, respiratory and enteropathic complaints) which allows it to be recognised surprisingly quickly. (In the years before AIDS was identified, such a case would have been recognised as striking and unusual; from the 1980s onwards it would have been recognised as AIDS.)

Indeed, this is a key point about AIDS, one that I tried to make in the opening chapters of The River. Even to inexperienced observers, the condition of AIDS is readily recognised as something that is different and new. For instance, the first cases in the Rakai district of southern Uganda were seen in 1982, and by 1984 the local people had given this apparently new disease a new name: “Slim”. (This was even before Slim was recognised by Western doctors in Africa as a presentation of AIDS.) The Sharps and Worobeys, by contrast, apparently believe that thousands of Africans must have been infected between the 1930s and the 1960s, but that nobody noticed that anything new was going on!

In any case, even if one were to accept their 1931 start date as accurate, there is another possible explanation, one that is I believe far more compelling. As I have reported since year 2000, experimental polio vaccination campaigns that used vaccines grown in the kidneys of (a) chimpanzees; and (b) baboons and “other monkeys” (including sooty mangabeys) were staged in Africa in the 1950s and early 1960s, in the very places which are now known and accepted as the geographical hearths of HIV-1 and HIV-2.

The geneticists assume that the various outbreaks of AIDS all evolved from a single index case of HIV infection. However, their molecular dating approach cannot distinguish between one single HIV infection in, say, 1931, and a small cluster of index cases infected via the African vaccines used in the late 1950s. This is because, according to their model, their 1931 index virus would, over 25 or 30 years, have evolved genetically to the same extent that would obtain if multiple HIV-1 variants were introduced to humans in the late 1950s via different batches of vaccine.

To put it another way, the geneticists believe that the nine or so genetically divergent subtypes of HIV-1 group M (pandemic HIV-1) all evolved from that one index case between the 1930s and the 1950s, whereas I believe that the different HIV-1 subtypes represent the different viral strains that were transferred to humans via the different vaccine batches. (It appears that the OPV batches given to humans in Africa were produced in series, one from another, so there is the potential for new chimp viruses to have entered the “soup” and recombined every time that new chimp tissue cultures and chimp sera were employed to grow a new batch of vaccine.)

In short, despite the two very different scenarios for first transfer proposed by the bushmeat and OPV hypotheses, the epidemiological (and phylogenetic) patterns from the late 1950s onwards would be exactly the same.

Has there been a cover-up?

Major scientific journals such as Science, Nature, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences continue to publish the impressive-sounding (but ill-supported) scientific research of researchers such as Bette Korber and Michael Worobey, while refusing all submissions that contain material or analysis supportive of the OPV hypothesis, even submissions from men as eminent as Bill Hamilton.

Why are these leading scientific journals showing such apparent bias? I believe that the reasons are partly financial and political, and partly ideological.

The Belgian Congo vaccination campaign was master-minded by American and Belgian scientists, and they and their successors can be imagined to be far from happy at the prospect of being sued for billions by large numbers of AIDS patients, for instance in a class action suit.

The governments of the USA and Belgium, both of which backed the trials financially and administratively, may feel very much the same way, and be every bit as defensive.

As for the ideological reasons, vaccination is the Holy Grail of Modern Medicine, and is the process on which most public health interventions are based. It is therefore also the process that can never be allowed to be seriously questioned or criticised in the public domain.

Never mind that I repeatedly emphasise in my writings that most vaccination campaigns are safe, and that I am simply questioning the safety of one experimental campaign conducted in the 1950s. From the perspective of many (far too many) of those in the public health fraternity, it’s a case of never mind what happened in the past: OPV/AIDS is a “dangerous theory” that could adversely affect popular confidence in the vaccination campaigns of the future.

I believe that the bias, as evidenced in part by the censored coverage in major scientific journals, is so extensive that it amounts to an implicit cover-up. Unfortunately, many scientists do not have the time or inclination to investigate these matters themselves, and they therefore tend to accept what Nature and Science have already pronounced on the subject. In practice, this means accepting the assurances of well-known scientists such as British retrovirologist Robin Weiss, who is, I believe, one of the principal architects and promulgators of the “official” bushmeat version of how AIDS began.

In response to my book The River in 1999, Professor Weiss wrote a cautious, but basically positive, review in Science, and then helped organise the Royal Society meeting on “Origins of HIV and the AIDS Epidemic” in September 2000. He skilfully arranged and co-ordinated that meeting so that it highlighted the establishment response to the OPV hypothesis, a response that was based on (a) the bushmeat hypothesis, (b) phylogenetic dating analysis, and (c) the testing of samples of CHAT vaccines obtained in the US and UK.

The latter samples of vaccine had never themselves been used for vaccination in Africa, and they clearly represented different batches of vaccine from those used in Africa (although Weiss and others tried to argue otherwise, mainly by obfuscating the issue). Of course, all these vaccine samples from the US and UK tested negative for SIVs and for chimpanzee DNA.

Apart from promoting and favouring such misleading research, several speakers at the Royal Society meeting deliberately tried to confuse and obfuscate the history of what had actually happened during the OPV campaigns in Africa. And then came the coup de grace in the form of Professor Weiss’s closing speech. His comments were quite blatantly biased, favouring only the bushmeat theory, and these were the comments that got reported in the press and in scientific journals the world over.

Weiss was also present at the second major origins of AIDS conference, held at the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei in Rome in September 2001, where, strangely, he was once again appointed to deliver the final summing-up. This time he was even more flagrantly biased, in that he managed to ignore virtually every bit of the new evidence that I and others (such as Luisa Bozzi and Mikkel Schierup) had presented. This time I was so disgusted that I surprised myself by getting up and walking out, shouting at the podium as I did so: “This speech is a disgrace.”

Michael Worobey’s past and future research.

The author of the “Emergence of HIV in the Americas” study is the young Canadian Michael Worobey, a Rhodes Scholar who first worked under molecular biologist Eddie Holmes (another bushmeat proponent) at the Department of Zoology at Oxford University, and who a few years back was appointed head of his own evolutionary biology lab at the University of Arizona in Tucson.

Worobey actually has a significant history of involvement in the origins-of-AIDS debate. Furthermore, he would appear to be the man who is being promoted by kingmakers such as Robin Weiss to become the new “star investigator” of the bushmeat lobby.

The Haitian research may therefore be part and parcel of a continuing process designed to position Dr Worobey in the public eye, and to lend kudos to his work. In reality his Americas paper was not an especially ground-breaking study, but it is one that garners easy headlines – especially when allied to his estimates of when HIV may have arrived in the United States.

And what comes next? This is revealed by the last line of the press release, which states: “Worobey’s next step is following the trail of HIV-1 even further back in time using older archival samples”.

Some clues about what he is actually looking at are provided by Worobey’s 2005 grant proposal to the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (part of the NIH). This ended with his promise to “illuminate the remarkably unstudied early phase of HIV evolution (from around the time of discovery of AIDS, back to 1955 or perhaps even earlier)”.

I consider the fact that Worobey specifically mentions the year 1955, which immediately predates the polio vaccine trials, to be very telling – and in a companion essay to this one I shall explain why such responsible-sounding work is in reality a cause for considerable concern.

Edward Hooper. First version written November 1st, 2007; this updated version written January 20th, 2008; minor changes made and posted on March 19th, 2008.

[See also the essay on “Michael Worobey’s possession of 1950s tissue samples from Stanleyville”, which leads on from this one.]

Contested Testimony in Scientific Disputes: the Case of the Origins of AIDS

Professor Brian Martin, the sociologist of science from Wollongong University, Australia, first entered the origins of AIDS debate in 1991, when he arranged for the publication of Louis Pascal’s seminal monograph on the OPV theory: “What Happens When Science Goes Bad?”. He has never concealed his belief that the OPV hypothesis has not been fairly treated by mainstream Science, and since about 1997, he has given me a great deal of helpful feedback on my work. During the last 15 years he has written a number of essays on origins-of-AIDS – and his sense of fairness and balance, plus his track-record as a defender of free speech in Science, have won the respect of all sides in the debate. At the Royal Society conference in 2000, he made a speech on “The burden of proof and the origin of AIDS” which caused a significant amount of defensive anger among supporters of Hilary Koprowski and the bushmeat theory. In his latest essay on “Contested Testimony”, available here, he examines the question of whose testimony on key issues such as the CHAT campaigns in Africa (that gathered by Stanley Plotkin and associates, or that gathered by Edward Hooper and associates) is more likely to be reliable.

EH 3/11/07

“Back in ten minutes” – A Personal Message From Ed Hooper

I have greatly enjoyed the feedback and comment which this site has engendered since it first opened three years ago.

During those three years I have received thousands of messages and enquiries, and I have replied to the great majority. Occasionally one slips through the net, and to those persons I have failed to respond to, I do apologise.

Incredibly, whenever there has been comment from my readers, it has been positive. Sometimes people have debated with me about this or that aspect of the work, but all the feedback (where there has been feedback) has been extremely kind, and has encouraged me to continue my work. By chance, the first exception to this arrived this past week, but it was a letter couched in reassuringly childish terms of personal abuse, and not one to cause too many sleepless nights!

Of particular value have been the occasional contributions from whistle-blowers, most of which have required courage in one form or another. Some of these have been quite remarkable. A few whistle-blowers have provided valuable information from fifty years ago, while others have given important first-hand information about various of the scientists who are so determined to “refute” the OPV/AIDS hypothesis by fair means or foul….and usually the latter!

Other responders have been kind enough to offer financial contributions which, up to now, I have always declined. However, in the future I may possibly set up a facility whereby people can donate money via this site if they wish to do so. (The only rider would be that I would not accept donations from persons who wished to influence the content or editorial independence of the site in any way. In the past, two people have offered me large sums, but with a proviso – for instance if I was to front a class action suit against some of the vaccine experimenters. I don’t feel that such a course of action is appropriate. I’m the one who does the research, and it would compromise the process if I were also to get involved with related legal actions.) If I do decide to instal a Donations button it will be purely because, like everyone else, I have to pay my own way, and (with the exception of a $1,000 donation from a friend in 1990, and the £2,000 lent me, and later given me, by Professor Bill Hamilton in 1993) I have been 100% financially independent throughout the 17 years I have been researching this subject.

As an aside, I have twice in the last four years engendered income by buying a barn and a house and by renovating and reselling them. However, because I put a lot of myself into these activities (and of course enjoy them as they unfold), I have found such work to be far more time-consuming than I would have liked. In any case, property developing (even the way I have done it, which is on a confirmedly amateur basis) is not a lifestyle that sits very happily with my politics.

Before closing, I’d like to offer a couple of words of thanks. I’d like to thank the Webmaster of this site, a university professor who has a very full professional and personal life, and yet who still manages to run this site in his free time – and free of charge, too. Secondly, I’d like to thank all of you who have visited the site, and who have been interested enough to get in touch to offer comment and feedback. All of you have played a part.

Thanks especially to those of you who have recognised that there is more to the story of how AIDS began than meets the eye, and who have realised that (given the available evidence) it is highly unlikely that the four recognised epidemics and outbreaks of AIDS began because, at some time in the early decades of the twentieth century, four different African hunters or bushmeat-sellers got infected with SIV while killing or butchering chimpanzees or sooty mangabeys, and thus started four different AIDS outbreaks. I’m also impressed by the number of people who get in touch and who recognise something that still shocks me – namely that a significant proportion of scientists practice misleading science, or even corrupt science, mainly for political ends or personal gain. All of you clearly believe that the world is a better place when the activities of such persons are exposed – and I find this massively reassuring.

Finally, I’d like to announce that I will be relatively silent for the next few months, which will probably mean that I am less able (or even unable) to respond to e-mail enquiries and the like. But please be assured: I am not asleep. Instead, I am busy with my next project. Sometimes, in order to really concentrate, you have to shut yourself away for a while. As for the project….sorry, no clues for now, but it will be interesting, I promise you that.

So…..back in ten minutes. I’ll be in touch.

Ed Hooper July 1st, 2007.

The Death of Professor Paul M. Osterrieth – and its Significance for the Origins of AIDS debate

Professor Paul Osterrieth’s long struggle is over. The man who worked at the Laboratoire Medical de Stanleyville (LMS) between 1956 and 1960 (for the last three years as head of the virology lab) died shortly before Christmas, and he was buried on December 22nd, 2006 at his village in the Ardennes. I am reliably informed that there was a large congregation at his funeral, including fellow-professors from his last place of work, the University of Liege, at least one of whom spoke warmly about him at the service. Although I cannot confirm this, I believe that he was about 81 years of age.

I came across Dr Osterrieth only three times, but I have vivid memories of each occasion. I had two formal interviews with him, in 1993 and 1994, and I saw him again at the Royal Society meeting on “Origins of HIV and the AIDS epidemic” in Sepember 2000.

The first interview was a day-long affair, which began after he picked me up at the local station early in the morning. I was invited to join him and his wife for breakfast, during which his wife asked me if I intended to question her husband about the theory that CHAT vaccine, the oral polio vaccine (OPV) that had been subjected to tests and field-trials at the LMS in the 1950s, had somehow been involved in the origin of the AIDS epidemic. I answered that this was indeed one of several things I wanted to ask Dr Osterrieth about, and almost immediately he disappeared from the room. When he returned five or ten minutes later, he was looking grey with concern. During the remainder of the day Dr Osterrieth was courteous and kind, and he answered most of my questions, but it was clear that at several junctures he was distinctly uneasy.

Some of the easiest questions that I put to him (such as how many chimpanzees had been used in the course of the polio research at the LMS, and what had eventually happened to those animals) stumped him completely, while others caused him to ponder for lengthy periods before answering. The question that caused him most difficulty was which primate he had been using to make tissue culture in the laboratory, in order to grow his viruses. There was a long pause, and he eventually said that he couldn’t remember. I started to prompt him: had he perhaps been using the kidneys of African green monkeys, or chimpanzees? His response to the latter was unexpectedly rapid: “No, no – not chimpanzees.”

Later on, after I happened to mention that another virologist, Pierre Lepine, had been using baboons from Africa to make tissue culture during the late fifties, Osterrieth volunteered that “if Pierre Lepine would use [baboon tissue], it’s probably likely we did” at the LMS. But his statement was far from convincing.

My question about the chimps had been legitimate, for between 1956 and 1960 over 500 chimps had been utilised at Lindi camp, an experimental chimpanzee holding centre which Osterrieth’s boss, the LMS director, Ghislain Courtois, had set up in the rain forest just outside Stanleyville. The avowed reason for establishing this camp had been that it would permit the testing of the experimental OPVs of Polish-American virologist, Hilary Koprowski, and some 400 chimps were used specifically on this polio research. The camp had originally been called the “Mission Courtois-Koprowski”; the local Congolese called it “Camp Polio”.

At another point in the interview, I explained to Dr Osterrieth that I had found records indicating that he had extracted kidneys from some of the Lindi chimps, and sent them to the US (where, incidentally, they had later been used to make tissue culture, which was reportedly used in an attempt to grow hepatitis viruses). After some intitial hesitation, he wryly acknowledged that if this was recorded on paper, then he must have done it. But he insisted that they had only made “a little” tissue culture (type unspecified) at the LMS itself. This seemed very strange, given that making tissue culture was the primary purpose of a virology laboratory, and given that (as he himself told me) he had been invited to train at the Wistar Institute in 1957 “for maybe one or two weeks”. He added that he had had “a very funny time at that lab, because I never knew exactly why I was there”. What he forgot, however, was that near the beginning of the interview he had told me that Koprowski had invited him to the Wistar specifically because of “the polio work”, and in order to study tissue culture techniques. (Interestingly, in a later publication, he wrote that he had actually trained at the Wistar for “a month”.)

Towards the end of the day, once Dr Osterrieth had rediscovered his equilibrium, I discussed the OPV/AIDS theory with him. He said that he didn’t think it was plausible, mainly for three reasons. Firstly, although he admitted that lymphocytes (which theoretically could have contained simian immunodeficiency viruses, SIVs, the ancestors of the HIVs) would have been present in the tissue cultures used to make CHAT vaccine, he did not think that any SIV could have survived through to the final vaccine; secondly, he said that the oral route was not an effective route of infection for SIVs and HIVs; and thirdly, he said he thought that the vaccine had in any case only been given to about 2,000 people in the Congo. (All of these arguments were later revealed as flawed, or spurious: most especially the last, for nearly one million Africans received the experimental OPVs between 1957 and 1960.)

Before I left, he stressed that the OPV theory was “a political time-bomb”, adding: “And there is no evidence – I mean hard facts. The only good way would be to prove that there is [an SIV] in CHAT vaccine. All the rest is coincidental, and is very dangerous…..I would say that if you’re not 100% sure, then don’t publish.” At the time, this sounded like sensibly cautious advice.

Looking back at the transcript of this interview from the perspective of 2007, I can see that it was characterised by two major elements. Dr Osterrieth failed to give any specific details about what he actually did do at the LMS and Lindi with the polio vaccines and chimpanzees, and at all times he tried to minimise the importance of this work, and his own involvement with it. Over the last few years, I have acquired documentary and testimonial evidence which proves beyond doubt that many of the careful (and sometimes laboured) statements he made during that interview were untrue. But back in 1993 all I had was the gut feeling that not all that he had told me added up.

Almost a year later, I returned to Dr Osterrieth’s pretty farm in the Ardennes for a second interview, only to find that his previously kindly attitude had changed. This time he was brusque from the outset, and became even more irritable when he learnt that I still believed the OPV theory to be viable. Now he denied several of the statements he had made a year earlier, such as the fact that he had sent chimp kidneys to the States. Presently I showed him a copy of the 1959 LMS annual report, which revealed that 250,000 doses of CHAT vaccine had been “conditioned” in the laboratory. Did this mean that a batch of CHAT had been prepared in the LMS?, I asked. “CHAT certainly wasn’t prepared in the lab. Transferred from one bottle to another, maybe, but not prepared”, he answered briskly. “Of that I’m 100% sure, because I was making the tissue culture.” By contrast, his answers to many of my other questions were once again extremely hesitant. It became increasingly clear to me that he had decided before the interview to stick to the line that he himself had been hardly involved with the polio research, or with the chimpanzees. I was quite shocked by his manner and by his denials, and before I had asked even half of my questions, I decided to thank him and to abandon the interview.

(As it turns out, Osterrieth’s explanation for the “conditioning” of a quarter of a million doses of CHAT, which took place at the very end of 1959, was probably correct. It was what had happened to the vaccine in the years before then that was crucial. But by a happy chance, my question did elicit the clear statement that he himself had been the one making the tissue culture at the LMS.)

That was 1994. Five years later, my book The River was published, in which I carefully outlined the reasons why I believed that OPV/AIDS remained a viable, and indeed a compelling theory. The increasingly favourable reviews that the book engendered forced the scientific community to acknowledge that the theory deserved to be examined properly, and to that end a two-day discussion meeting on “Origins of HIV and the AIDS epidemic” was organised at the Royal Society for the month of September 2000. Dr Osterrieth was invited to deliver a short address to the meeting.

For reasons beyond my control I was not present during his five-minute speech, but I heard about it afterwards, and subsequently listened to a tape recording. Although Osterrieth admitted that he had sent “six minced chimpanzee kidneys” to the States, he made no mention of any other work involving chimpanzees, and he now even denied that the CHAT vaccines from the US had ever been handled in his lab. He said that the only success that he had enjoyed making tissue culture had been with baboon kidneys, implied that this had not happened until mid-1958, and added that even then he had succeeded in making only 200 tubes and ten bottles. “There is no possibility that chimpanzee cells could have contaminated the vaccine”, he concluded.

His brief paper was entitled “Vaccine could not have been prepared in Stanleyville”, though apart from assertion, there was nothing in his paper to support this sweeping statement.

Indeed, within weeks of the meeting I discovered that it was the norm in the 1950s for polio vaccine to be amplified in locally available primate cells upon arrival at a recipient laboratory in Africa. Part of the reason was to keep the vaccine virus alive, though such amplification also served to boost the quantity and concentration (or titre) of the vaccine, which allowed greater numbers to be vaccinated. Significantly, before 1960 there was no specification about the species of primates that could and could not be used for polio vaccine preparation in this manner. Vaccine had merely to be prepared in tissues which originated from healthy animals, and which showed no evidence of contamination. One suspects that, not for the first time the world of science, the totals on balance sheets may have played a major role.

As an aside, there was another interesting event that occurred during the course of the Royal Society meeting. A French photographer asked Dr Osterrieth is he could take a photo of him. Osterrieth refused, and apparently added that if the photographer snapped a photo without permission, he would “break [his] camera”. The young photographer, having never been threatened like this before, was quite shocked.

One of the co-organisers of the meeting, retrovirologist Robin Weiss, summed up at the end of the conference, and described Osterrieth’s speech as “resonant”. However, in an e-mail sent the following year to a jourmalist who asked specifically about Osterrieth’s testimony, he put it rather differently. “Either Osterrieth is lying through his teeth or [Hooper] has got it wrong”, he wrote; the remainder of the e-mail made it clear that he firmly subscribed to the latter scenario. [I should perhaps add that Weiss’s e-mailed reply to the journalist was quite an eye-opener. It was profoundly biased, and he based two of his four answers on shameless misquotations from my latest paper (of which I myself had given him a copy just a week earlier).]

In just one instance, Osterrieth had some evidence to support his claims at the Royal Society meeting. The sole reference to tissue culture in the LMS annual reports occurs in the 1958 report; which clearly states that tissue culture was made “exclusively from baboons”, and that just 200 tubes and ten bottles had been made. Strangely, the quantity described would in fact have been the product of just a single pair (or at most two pairs) of baboon kidneys.

Even at the time of the Royal Society, I already had evidence to suggest that significant parts of what Dr Osterrieth was now stating were incorrect, and soon afterwards a great deal more counter-evidence came to light. In April 2001 I revisited Kisangani (formerly Stanleyville) accompanied by a film crew making a documentary (later released as “The Origins of AIDS”), and this time I was able to interview several Congolese workers who had witnessed the procedures at Lindi camp and the LMS with their own eyes. (During my previous visit in July 1999 I had only located one truly significant witness; apparently someone did track down several other witnesses on my behalf, but unfortunately he arrived at the hotel with his exciting news just after our departure.)

But back to 2001. Two former caretakers from Lindi camp stated that all but about 60 of the several hundred chimpanzees held there had eventually been sacrificed (killed), and that many of them had been anaesthetised before sacrifice, so that blood and vital organs (including kidneys) could be removed while the animals were still alive. Only after the operation was the coup de grace administered. At the time, this was the standard method of sacrifice employed when collecting tissues for making tissue culture.

A Congolese technician working at the LMS made a simple but stunning statement. He said that most of the tissue culture that had been made in the lab in the late fifties had come from chimpanzees. However, he recalled next to nothing about the methods that had been employed, and I felt that this still fell somewhat short of substantive proof.

However, another technician, Jacques Kanyama, who had been employed in Osterrieth’s own virology lab, where he worked especially on the cleaning and sterilisation of glassware, stated that chimp materials had regularly been brought to the lab, and that furthermore Dr Osterrieth had regularly been making polio vaccines there, vaccines that were later administered to local adults and children. How did Jacques know that Osterrieth had actually been making the vaccines? Well, he undertook this process after hours in his own private lab (which was in fact the sterile room, where tissue cultures were prepared and handled), and he did it every time a new request came in for polio vaccine from another provincial doctor. The quantities of vaccine were always much larger after he had finished. [I address below the question of whether Osterrieth had actually been making the vaccine as Jacques believed (ie amplifying the vaccine that came from the US in local tissue culture), or simply diluting the American vaccine in saline solution.]

It was this final interview that represented the “Eureka moment” when the light-bulb went off, and I finally realised that, despite the insistent denials by the vaccine-makers, at least some of the batches of CHAT vaccine administered to more than 900,000 people in the Belgian Congo and Ruanda-Urundi between 1957 and 1959 appeared to have been amplified (or regrown) locally in the LMS. On the basis of the first technician’s testimony, it seemed highly probable that this had occurred in chimpanzee tissue, and (on the basis of an internal report about the Lindi chimps published in the US) that the tissue cultures had also employed chimpanzee sera as growth medium.

Nearly 18 months after this, I revisited Pierre Doupagne, who had worked as chief technician at the LMS from 1949 to 1960. I had always respected M. Doupagne, and this time we spoke together for almost an entire day. I told him what I had been told by the African chimp caretakers and lab technicians in Kisangani. About two hours into the interview (which I taped), he suddenly volunteered the fact that he might, on two or three occasions, have prepared tissue cultures from chimps and given them to Paul Osterrieth and the LMS histopathologist, Gaston Ninane, “to do what with, I do not know”. At the very end of the interview, I asked him again how many times he had prepared chimpanzee tissue cultures for Osterrieth and Ninane, and he answered – quietly but perfectly audibly – “for a long time”.

This was a complete bombshell. Osterrieth had insisted that he and only he had been making tissue culture at the LMS (and intriguingly, Ninane had made exactly the same claim for himself).

And now here was Doupagne stating that for a long time it was actually he who had been preparing the lab’s tissue culture, and making it from chimpanzees. Furthermore, he had then given it to Osterrieth and Ninane. Previously, Osterrieth had insisted to me that CHAT couldn’t possibly have been prepared in the LMS because he and only he had been making tissue culture there. The second part of the statement was now revealed as a blatant misrepresentation, which rendered the first part equally questionable.

That batches of the Koprowski vaccines had been amplified locally in chimpanzee tissues was later further confirmed in statements from two further Belgian witnesses who had been directly and indirectly involved with the process in the 1950s. (This evidence remains to be published, but it will appear in good time.) There is other confirming evidence as well.

The significance of these revelations is revealed by the fact that the SIV of the common chimpanzee is generally accepted as the immediate ancestor of the AIDS pandemic virus, HIV-1. SIVs are now known to be found naturally in approximately 13% of wild chimps, and because at Lindi the chimps were routinely co-caged and sometimes group-caged, there was clearly a likelihood that an even higher percentage were SIV-infected at the time of sacrifice. SIVs in the macrophages and lymphocytes of the Lindi chimps would have infected the tissues (and sera) used in vaccine tissue cultures, and, crucially, different strains of chimp SIV would have recombined in these cultures. This process would therefore have engendered different viral variants in each new batch prepared – and one suspects that these viral variants might bear close resemblance to the different subtypes of pandemic HIV-1 that are recognised today.

Osterrieth’s technician stated that new vaccine was prepared for each new trial, which means that different batches of CHAT were used in nearly 30 different vaccination trials in what are now the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi and Rwanda.

A paper co-written by a statistician and myself, and which has still to be submitted for publication, finds a “highly significant” correlation between the towns and villages in Africa where CHAT vaccine was fed in 1957-60 and the earliest appearances in the world of HIV-1. (In a separate study, the correlation with the earliest cases of AIDS is found to be “significant”.) This means that the CHAT vaccinations in Africa represent both a viable and highly plausible source of the human AIDS pandemic.

In contrast, the proponents of the “bushmeat hypothesis” of AIDS origin (who believe that humans acquired HIV-1 during the preparation or consumption of chimpanzee bushmeat) have put forward three major arguments which, they claim, “refute” the OPV theory.

Firstly, they have retrospectively tested US-made batches of CHAT vaccine, and found them free of SIV, HIV-1 and chimp DNA. However, they have not tested any of the batches that were prepared in the Congo, for the simple reason that (if any still exist) no such batches have ever been released for testing.

Secondly, they claim that phylogenetic analysis of the various different strains of HIV-1 seen in the world today proves that the index strain, the original virus which, they say, was acquired by a human from chimp bushmeat, must have existed in or around 1931, this being some 25 years before the OPV trials in Africa. This is increasingly recognised as an absurd argument, based on the erroneous concept that HIV-1 has been mutating at a constant rate since the original transfer to man from chimpanzee. It fails to take into account the fact that the major way that HIV-1 (and all retroviruses) evolve is only some 10% by mutation; roughly 90% of the process occurs through recombination. In other words, the geneticists are using a faulty model to arrive at that entirely theoretical date of 1931. The earliest confirmed blood sample containing HIV-1 apparently pertains to 1959, although there is evidence suggesting that the sample in question may be wrongly dated, and may actually have been obtained at some point between 1960 and 1963.

Thirdly, they claim that the imediate ancestor of the pandemic variant of HIV-1 actually comes from a subspecies of chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes troglodytes) that is found only in west central Africa, in Cameroon, Congo-Brazzaville, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea. This claim is unconfirmed, for only a tiny proportion of chimp troops across central Africa have actually been tested for SIV. But in any case I have recently published documentary evidence which proves that at least one Pan troglodytes troglodytes chimp was present among the experimental chimps (which were mainly Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) and bonobos (Pan paniscus) that were being handled by the LMS scientists.

Apart from this, I have in the last two years found further documentary evidence (not yet released) which strongly suggests that small groups of Pan troglodytes troglodytes (originating from different countries) were present at Lindi camp from a very early stage. Due to co-caging and group caging, any of the other chimpanzees and bonobos at Lindi could have acquired SIV from these Pan troglodytes troglodytes chimps.

In short, I would strongly contend that none of the so-called scientific “refutations” of the OPV theory actually stand up to scrutiny.

– 0 –

After my 2002 interview with Pierre Doupagne, I tried on four further occasions to speak with Paul Osterrieth. Twice I phoned his house, and on the one occasion I got through his wife told me that he was working away from home. On two other occasions I revisited his farmhouse, and although his car was there (and on one occasion I heard someone moving inside) nobody answered the door. On one occasion I returned 30 minutes later to find that the electric bell had been switched off. It seemed that Dr Osterrieth had seen me walking up the drive, and had elected not to answer the door. So it was that I never got to ask him face to face what he had done with those chimp tissue cultures provided by Pierre Doupagne.

And now Dr Osterrieth is dead.

His former colleagues on the CHAT vaccination programme in Africa, Hilary Koprowski and Stanley Plotkin, will very likely lionise him in days to come as one of the fallen heroes of the fight against polio, but I suspect that behind the scenes they may be breathing substantial sighs of relief.

However, they should not get too relaxed.

Although Dr Osterrieth refused to speak with me again, he did agree in 2003 to answer a series of my questions by e-mail. I submitted 30-odd questions, and he replied to them about five weeks later. These answers provided his definitive account of what he did and did not do at the LMS and Lindi camp – but they were far from impressive. In some instances, he simply failed to address the question asked. In other instances, I already had enough information from other sources to be able to demonstrate that his latest answer was partially or wholly untrue. In other instances again, his answer contradicted versions of events that he had given me previously. Nearly all of the errors or contradictions related directly to the key issues: his involvement in the polio vaccine campaign, and the uses to which the Lindi chimpanzees had been put. If one were being generous, one could ascribe some of these errors or contradictions to a patchy or failing memory. But not all of them.

I e-mailed back to thank him for his answers, but I never took it further, mainly because I suspected that by highlighting the discrepancies in his replies, I was only assisting Osterrieth and his collaborators in their attempts to construct a plausible defence.

Osterrieth’s replies were later used as the bare bones of a more comprehensive response, “Oral polio vaccine: fact versus fiction”, an article that was published in 2004 by Stanley Plotkin in Vaccine. (Plotkin sits on the editorial board of this journal.) Osterrieth’s article contains several similar claims to those that featured in his 2003 e-mail to me, but the text is much more fluent, and bears the signs of other people’s hands in addition to his own.

On the basis of documents in my possession and previous statements on these issues made by Paul Osterrieth and others, I can state this. “Oral polio vaccine: fact versus fiction” is accurately titled. It does contain some facts, although on the key issues it is a fictional account – a carefully-constructed “smoke and mirrors” rewriting of history.

I will demonstrate the many inaccuracies and untruths in this account when the time is right. For now, however, let me provide just three examples.

1) In a previous paper, I had reported that Jacques Kanyama stated that he started work in Osterrieth’s virology lab on February 12th, 1958, and that Osterrieth was already making polio vaccine at that time. In “Fact versus fiction”, Osterrieth claims that he officially returned to work at the LMS only on February 23rd, 1958. (He admits in a footnote that he had previously claimed, in a paper published on the Web, that he returned to the lab on February 28th, and ascribes his error to “having mistaken a 3 for an 8”. In fact, the typing in the 1958 LMS annual report that bears this date is quite clear, which renders his excuse rather far-fetched – though it may be related to the fact that polio vaccine was administered at the local army camp on February 27th!) In “Fact versus fiction”, Osterrieth admits that he arrived back in Stanleyville from the US and Belgium “several days” before the 23rd, but claims that he was not working in the lab. However, in 1993 both Osterrieth and his wife told me that they returned to Kisangani “a few days after” the arrival of Dr Fritz Deinhardt (which is elsewhere recorded as having been on February 2nd, 1958) and that he got down to work straight away. This strongly suggests that Osterrieth’s first 18 to 20 days back in the lab are for some reason not recorded in the annual report. In “Fact versus fiction”, Osterrieth expresses doubt that Kanyama was actually working in his lab on February 12th. But in any case, he goes on, how could he, Osterrieth, have been making polio vaccine in his lab on February 12th “when the virus lab was not even yet created”? In reality, the virus lab had its official opening in September 1957, and had opened informally several weeks before that, probably before Osterrieth’s departure on leave (recorded as having been on July 19th, 1957). I have personally seen Kanyama’s employment card bearing the date of February 12th, and the card was filmed in close-up as well. What this means is that Kanyama’s account of the dates is entirely consistent with Osterrieth’s actual date of return to Stanleyville near the start of February; indeed, it was because of Osterrieth’s return that he was hired in the first place. In 2005 I called Kisangani (formerly Stanleyville) by cell-phone, and spoke again with Kanyama (first directly, to establish his identity, and then, since he speaks virtually no French or English, via a translator). He told me that in 2004 (soon after the “Origins of AIDS” film was broadcast), he was persuaded on three occasions to meet with certain Congolese professors, on one occasion with three of them together. It became apparent that these professors had tried to pressure him into changing his testimony on certain key issues, notably the date he started working at the lab, the date when he says that Osterrieth was making polio vaccine, and the date when they vaccinated with this polio vaccine at the local army camp Significantly, at least one of the professors he met with was a man who had already played a significant role in this controversy, and who at around this time began to receive substantial financial assistance from Belgium. Shortly after this phone call, I was informed that this same professor was now working in league with Professor Dudu Akaibe, the vice-dean of the faculty of science at the University of Kisangani, who has himself been an active paid collaborator of the Plotkin group since early 2001. At least some of the money channelled to Akaibe has come from Plotkin’s former employers, the vaccine house Aventis Pasteur, though it seems that a significant role has also been played by the University of Leuven in Belgium, an organisation that was already collaborating with Koprowski on the African CHAT trials back in the 1950s.

2) In any case, says Osterrieth, he was preparing many vaccines against different diseases, and he didn’t discuss his work with his junior staff, so “how could [Kanyama] know what vaccines I was making”? As shown in part in the “Origins of AIDS” film, Kanyama recalls that the vaccine that Osterrieth made was then given to him to put into small glass phials, which were labelled with the words “anti-polio vaccine”. Later (apparently on February 27th, 1958), Kanyama took these phials, and helped vaccinate with them at the local army camp.

3) Osterreith also questions how an untrained helper like Kanyama could have known what work he (Osterrieth) was doing in the lab with the vaccines: how could he have differentiated between vaccine preparation (on the one hand) and dilution of the concentrated vaccine stock (on the other)? On this key question, there are three powerful proofs. Both contemporary articles on the Congo vaccinations and the diary of one of the vaccinators confirm that dilution of the CHAT vaccine (in saline solution) was a process which took just moments, and which was done every morning in the field, just before vaccination began. In short, dilution was not a lengthy process that had to be done behind closed doors in the laboratory. In any case, Stanley Plotkin’s first detailed published defence of the CHAT vaccinators (which was published in Clinical Infectious Diseases on April 1st, 2001; Volume 32, pages 1068-1084) quotes both Dr Osterrieth and Dr Ninane (on page 1074) as making identically-worded statements: “I never tried to dilute the polio vaccine that was received.” So here we have Dr Osterrieth (prompted and backed by Dr Plotkin) presenting a signed statement as evidence of innocence in 2001, and then, when it suits his purposes in 2004, proposing the exact opposite.

Stanley Plotkin wrote an accompanying editorial to Paul Osterieth’s article (“Chimpanzees and journalists”, a title which provides some clues about Plotkin’s rather uncertain sense of humour) which once again falsely claimed that the OPV theory had been refuted. This editorial was heavily based on Osterrieth’s article, which Plotkin treated as if it were factually proven, rather than dubious and contested testimony.

Significantly, although he must have seen the testimony by Pierre Doupagne in “The Origins of AIDS” film, which was broadcast several times in Belgium, Paul Osterrieth never made any attempt to deny this account, or to explain what he might have done with the chimpanzee tissue culture with which Doupagne supplied him.

I still retain some sympathy for Dr Osterrieth, even in death, and I wish him peace. I think it’s a tragedy that he chose to take his secrets with him to the grave, but equally I realise that the pressures upon him over the last ten or so years must have been immense. Of course, back in the 1950s he was merely a dutiful (albeit ambitious) subordinate, a young man who did the bidding of Hilary Koprowski and the LMS director, Ghislain Courtois.

It is my belief that Dr Osterrieth bears only a small part of the moral responsibility for these events that is borne by the major players in the 1950s, notably Dr Koprowski, and by those who were junior players in the fifties, but who have master-minded the cover-up of the last decade, notably Dr Plotkin.

Doubtless the doctors who collaborated with Dr Osterrieth in the African CHAT vaccinations will accuse me of speaking ill of the dead. But in reality I have published most of this information before, either in The River, or in previous essays on this web-site.

The reason I am writing this all down now is that I believe that Dr Osterrieth’s passing should be marked not only by sanitised eulogies, but also by an honest attempt to record what he did and did not do in the Belgian Congo, fifty years ago, activity which, tragically, appears to have coincided with the seeding of the AIDS pandemic.

Ed Hooper. January 4th, 2007.

Smoke and Mirrors from Stanley Plotkin

In the past on this site [for instance in “Plotkin’s Chums (1): Eminent scientists sign their names to falsehoods”], I have referred to identical or nearly identical letters written by Stanley Plotkin and his allies to TV executives and film festival organisers, urging them not to show “The Origins of AIDS” documentary. The reason they offer for writing such letters is inherently dishonest, for each letter is based on the false assertion that the OPV theory of AIDS origin has been disproved.

Apart from legal threats delivered through their lawyers, this letter-writing campaign has been one of the major approaches that Dr Plotkin’s group have used in their ongoing attempts to counter, and indeed to suppress, the OPV hypothesis.

I have received copies of many of these letters, which I am holding in reserve for an appropriate moment. However, I have decided that it worth posting details about one such initiative on this web-site, to give readers some idea about how Dr Stanley Plotkin operates.

Plotkin’s latest ploy.

In September 2006 I received an e-mail from Arnie Gelbart, executive producer of Galafilm, the co-producers of “The Origins of AIDS”. He said that following a recent broadcast of the film by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), letters of criticism from Dr Mark Wainberg and Dr Stanley Plotkin had been addressed to the head of news, and the executive vice president of CBC. He asked if I could provide any material to send to CBC to help them respond to these claims.

I realised almost immediately that Dr Wainberg was not only, as he described himself, a co-chair of the 16th International Conference on AIDS (the major world conference on that disease, which had just been held in Toronto).

He was also an active member of Dr Plotkin’s team of “OPV theory refuters”: one of the nine collaborators who, since 2004, have assisted Plotkin by writing identical or nearly identical letters to TV companies and film festivals, urging them not to show a film [“The Origins of AIDS”] which they claimed was “dangerous” and “misleading”. The fact that in this instance the two men had written separately to CBC, as if one was disinterestedly supporting the legitimate concerns of the other, struck me as rather revealing.

However, this latest initiative represents a good example of how Stanley Plotkin has chosen to respond to the OPV theory.

He has never made any sincere attempt to respond to the majority of the points made in, or questions raised by, The River, or in my follow-up articles. And he has never attempted to provide a convincing account of his own involvement, which was significant, in the 1950s OPV trials in the Belgian Congo.

Instead, Dr Plotkin’s approach has been as follows:

a) he has misrepresented certain specific points in the history which he believes cannot be checked; on the basis of these falsehoods he then later asserts that he has “proved Hooper wrong”;

b) he has encouraged and assisted the placing of alleged counter-arguments to the OPV theory (such as the negative testing of vaccine samples; phylogenetic dating; and “wrong sub-species” of chimp) in the medical literature; most of these articles have apparently been written by his allies and collaborators, or else by scientists whose grants, and indeed careers, now seem to depend on their continuing to promulgate such arguments;

c) even though the arguments mentioned in (b) may later be revealed as dubious, flawed or bogus, Plotkin ignores all counter-evidence, and instead points to these published articles in order to assert that “Hooper’s allegations have been refuted”; (a surprising number of people, including scientists who should know better, appear to have been taken in by this approach, perhaps basing their reasoning on the assumption that “if it’s good enough for Nature and Science, it’s good enough for me”);

d) he has provided copies of the articles cited in (b) to TV stations and film companies, and then pressured them not to broadcast a “misleading” film;

e) he and Koprowski have used a combination of letter-writing and legal initiatives in order to chip away at publishers, conference organisers and journal editors, with the intention of discrediting me personally, and/or eliminating The River and the “Origins of AIDS” documentary from the public domain.

[In these five foregoing points alone, I have used quote marks to indicate the spirit of what has been said, rather than direct quotations from Dr Plotkin.]

Dr Plotkin’s response to the OPV/AIDS theory has relied heavily on the fact that he has developed a predominantly favourable reputation among the virology and vaccine communities during a long career. He uses this existing goodwill as a base which places him in a good position to persuade friends that his claims on this issue ought to be believed, or else on occasions, I suspect, to call in favours.

However, his active role in this debate has also relied heavily on clandestine methods. He and his allies have relied on misinformation, obfuscation, and pressuring witnesses into adapting their stories on significant points – or else into silence. This is a “smoke and mirrors” approach. There is no evidence to indicate or suggest that Dr Plotkin himself is a spook, but the methods he has used have been tried and tested over many years by members of the intelligence community.

In addition, he has been able to employ collaborators or assistants to do much of the dirty work for him. This is an approach that requires access to money, of which both Stanley Plotkin and his former boss, Hilary Koprowski, have acquired a great deal in the course of their long careers. (Plotkin was for many years managing director of the Aventis Pasteur (now Sanofi Pasteur) vaccine house, and is still listed as a consultant to the CEO of that company. There is evidence, moreover, that this company has funded some of the Plotkin group’s more dubious activities in Africa. Koprowski is said to be worth more than $30 million, following his patenting of monoclonal antibodies in the US and Japan. This is a technique that was actually developed by Caesar Milstein at the Medical Research Council in the UK, but for which Koprowski managed to acquire some of the more lucrative patents.)

These are among the tactics which doctors Plotkin and Koprowski have used in a bid to persuade others to accept their “modified” versions of events. As a rule, only people who are backed up against a wall, or who are very worried about potential consequences, resort to such tactics.

I now have many examples in which I can prove that Dr Plotkin, Dr Koprowski and their allies have deliberately misrepresented the truth. If they feel they can disprove this, then perhaps they should sue me for libel or defamation. I will gladly see them in court.

In the past, Dr Plotkin has threatened me with legal action once, and Dr Koprowski has threatened either me, or my publishers and myself in tandem, on at least three occasions. On each occasion, either I or my publishers have responded robustly, and no response has been received from the other side….until (in the case of Koprowski) a few years pass, and he once again threatens litigation in a different form or format.

A study of Dr Koprowski’s history reveals that this is a tactic to which he has resorted often during his long scientific career; in fact, he has used the threat of legal action as a device for getting his own way ever since the 1950s. As far as I can determine, he has not encountered very many opponents who are unafraid of him, and who are fully prepared to oppose his legal threats.

In any case, in recent years doctors Plotkin and Koprowski have adopted a different tack. They steer well clear of me, but instead they employ lawyers in a bid to pressure book publishers and television executives into not publishing books, or not broadcasting films, on this subject.

I have decided that enough is enough. I now have so much evidence about the activities of these doctors and about the untruths they have told, especially about their activities in Africa, that I feel it is time to invite them to put up or shut up. If they believe that they have evidence to show that I’m a liar, then let them produce that evidence.

Even though there are strong suggestions that the two doctors read the items posted on this web-site, I do not expect to hear back from them. This is despite the fact that they would clearly love to sue me for libel or defamation. However, as they and their lawyers know, “libel” is not libel if the writer has evidence to support what he claims – which I have, and which they, in very many cases, clearly do not!

In any case, I believe it is vitally important that some of their approaches to modifying the truth are exposed, even if the process, for several reasons, has to be a gradual one. Accordingly, copies of Dr Plotkin’s and Dr Wainberg’s letters to CBC can be read below, as can the three enclosures that accompanied Dr Plotkin’s letter. The letter that I wrote to Jerry McIntosh, Director of Independent Documentaries at CBC, in response to the claims in the two doctors’ letters can also be read.

Finally, just to complete the CBC history, I am led to believe that a polite but robust written response from a CBC executive to doctors Wainberg and Plotkin had already been drafted, or possibly sent, even before my letter to CBC arrived. Apparently it was pointed out that “The Origins of AIDS” had raised valid questions about how AIDS might have started. It was also apparently pointed out that, contrary to Plotkin’s and Wainberg’s claims, neither the bushmeat nor the OPV theory had been proven or disproven, and that it was therefore legitimate for a responsible news organisation like CBC to continue to examine and discuss both theories.

Ed Hooper. November 23rd, 2006; slightly adapted December 8th, 2006.

—-

September 25, 2006

Re: “The Origins of AIDS” documentary, and subsequent complaints about its recent broadcast by CBC.

Dear Mr McIntosh,

My name is Edward Hooper. I am the author of a book entitled The River, and I featured as a talking head in the later stages of the Galafilm/MFP documentary, “The Origins of AIDS”, a film that ends up offering considerable support to the oral polio vaccine [OPV] theory of origin of AIDS. I personally am strongly persuaded that this theory explains how the AIDS pandemic began.

The OPV theory proposes that pandemic HIV-1 arrived in humans via an OPV called CHAT, which was administered to nearly one million colonised Africans in the Belgian Congo and Ruanda-Urundi in the late 1950s and which, uniquely for such a vaccine, was prepared in the cells of the common chimpanzee, the animal that is host to a simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) that is the immediate ancestor of HIV-1.

The documentary has been extremely well-received and has won several awards, which is why opponents of the OPV theory have been trying so hard to suppress it.

My help has recently been sought by Arnie Gelbart of Galafilm, who has sent me a copy of an e-mail to him from your colleague Christine Whalen, together with letters to the executive officers of CBC by doctors Plotkin and Wainberg, and a copy of Dr Plotkin’s editorial in Vaccine, entitled “Chimpanzees and journalists”.

I think it’s rather important that you (and CBC) have the full picture of what is going on here, which is rather different from what you might assume on the basis of the latter three documents.

I note that Dr Plotkin, in his letter to Dr Burman, describes CBC’s broadcasting of “The Origins of AIDS” as “a wilful act of ignorance and irresponsibility”, and that Dr Wainberg, in his earlier letter, describes the OPV theory as one that is “dangerously misleading” and that has been “scientifically refuted”.

The first thing to point out is that doctors Plotkin and Wainberg are not just casual allies in this matter. They have been actively collaborating for more than two years, writing a series of identical or near-identical letters to film festival directors, urging them to drop the “Origins of AIDS” documentary from their schedules. I have copies of some of these letters. Moreover I believe, but cannot prove, that these men have also written similar letters to other television executives.

Dr Wainberg is one of a group of eight or nine doctors who have consistently collaborated with Dr Plotkin in this initiative since (at latest) the summer of 2004. The group also includes doctors Beatrice Hahn and Bette Korber (two of the most prominent supporters of the “officially-approved” bushmeat theory of AIDS origin, and both virulent opponents of the OPV theory); Hahn’s former boss Dr Robert Gallo (who has described Plotkin’s former boss, the developer of CHAT vaccine, Dr Hilary Koprowski, as his “mentor”); doctors Robin Weiss and Simon Wain-Hobson (the two surviving organisers of the Royal Society conference on “Origins of HIV and the AIDS epidemic” in 2000); and Dr John Moore, an AIDS vaccine expert with a good command of the English language, who has been metaphorically described by colleagues as a “gun for hire”, and who Dr Plotkin seems to have hired as a media and public relations advisor.

[Some further background. The bushmeat theory of origin proposes that pandemic HIV-1 arose via a single zoonotic (cross-species) infection in around 1931, after a bushmeat hunter or seller became infected with chimpanzee SIV, perhaps through a cut. It does not explain why AIDS (and not only the pandemic, but any of the other three known outbreaks) failed to appear before the twentieth century, and there is a 600-mile distance between the place where the bushmeat proponents believe the crucial zoonosis occurred, and Leopoldville/Kinshasa – the place they believe was the cradle of the epidemic. By contrast, the OPV theory can readily explain these two factors.]

If the arguments that Stanley Plotkin’s letter-writers made in their identical letters were proven, or even scientifically or historically reasonable, then one could not take issue with their campaign. But that is emphatically not the case.

Throughout the course of this campaign, their approach has been to present themselves as disinterested scientific “experts” who, because of their expertise, are party to the truth about how AIDS began. The reality, however, is that the letter-writers have a political agenda – that of suppressing open discussion of an uncomfortable alternative theory (OPV), by means fair or foul.

Almost every one of the scientific claims made by these men and women is either speculative, misleading, or just plain untrue. They rely on hypothesis and assertion, but when examined closely, it becomes apparent that their arguments are not supported by sound scientific reasoning. (I shall support these claims in more detail below.)

Their historical claims are based on a series of falsehoods – falsehoods which have been systematically placed in the medical literature in the last eight years, mainly by the same group of doctors and their allies. A group of three Belgian and Dutch scientists who have been working for Dr Plotkin since 2000, and whose work has been financed at least in part by the company of which Plotkin was formerly managing director (Sanofi Pasteur, formerly known as Aventis Pasteur) has pressured several of the witnesses whom I had previously tape-recorded, and quoted in The River, persuading them to adapt their testimony on key points. African collaborators of Dr Plotkin have used financial inducements to encourage certain African witnesses to do the same. Fortunately, not all of those so approached have acquiesced with this process, and I have evidence (much of it documentary evidence) to illustrate what has happened.

Before I go any further, I should provide some brief background about myself. Between 1985 and 1987 I was a Uganda-based freelance journalist working mainly for the BBC and the Guardian (but on a couple of occasions for CBC radio). I first came across the AIDS epidemic by chance in 1986, and I have been researching and writing exclusively about AIDS since 1987. Since 1990 I have written only three or four articles for newspapers or magazines, so it is hardly appropriate for Dr Plotkin and his allies to refer to me as a “journalist”, though it suits them to do so, and thus imply that I merely have a passing interest in the subject. I don’t much like pigeon-holing myself, but since I have spent the last 19 years researching and writing books about AIDS (and the last 16 years about the origins of the condition), I personally feel that the terms “author” and “science writer” are more appropriate.

The great majority of those who have read my work, and in particular The River, would attest, I believe, that I am a careful and conscientious researcher, a good science writer, and a man of integrity. (Of course, the aforementioned scientists would doubtless disagree!) But at the risk of being accused of blowing my own trumpet, I will go further. In recent years, several scientists who are widely considered to be wise and impartial, and who are well-versed in this field, have told me (or others) that I probably know more about the subject of the origin of AIDS, in all its aspects (scientific, historical and political) than anyone else alive. One person who said this to my face was the great evolutionary biologist, Bill Hamilton, who was my mentor, and who wrote the foreword to The River. Sadly, Bill died in 2000, after paying a second visit to the Congo in an attempt to gather further faecal specimens from chimpanzees. After his death, this unassuming man was lionised, with one obituary describing him as “the greatest biologist since Charles Darwin”.

Now let me turn to the “Chimpanzees and journalists” editorial by Dr Stanley Plotkin. It should be noted that Dr Plotkin is on the editorial board of Vaccine, in which the editorial appears, and that this little-known journal therefore provides him with a convenient mouthpiece for his views.

He bases his editorial primarily on an article in the same issue of Vaccine written by Dr Paul Osterrieth, which we may presume was commissioned by Dr Plotkin himself. Dr Osterrieth was head of the virology lab at the Laboratoire Medical de Stanleyville [LMS], where the CHAT vaccine experiments were carried out in the late 1950s. Osterrieth’s article is entitled: “Oral polio vaccine: fact versus fiction”, but unfortunately it relies heavily on the latter. Several of the claims that Osterrieth makes in that article are provably untrue, and some of his claims contradict statements he himself has previously made in published writings on this subject.

Dr Osterrieth has for several years been unreliable about what he did and did not do at the LMS. In the one page paper he presented before the Royal Society in 2000, entitled “Vaccine could not have been prepared in Stanleyville”, Dr Osterrieth asserted that “[the polio] [v]accine was never handled in my laboratory, and contamination with chimpanzee cells was not possible”. But I have seven or eight witnesses, Belgian and African, who state unequivocally that the polio vaccine in question (CHAT) was handled in his laboratory. Several other witnesses have told me that materials (organs and blood) from some of the 450-odd chimpanzees that were sacrificed at Lindi camp (a holding centre for over 500 chimps that was set up in the rain forest, some 15 kilometres from Stanleyville) were routinely brought to Osterrieth’s lab, so clearly contamination (either accidental or through vaccine production) was possible.

Furthermore, the chief LMS lab technician of that period, Pierre Doupagne, told me in 2002 that he himself had routinely prepared chimpanzee tissue cultures and given them to Dr Osterrieth, “to do what with, I do not know”. That was a courageous admission for Doupagne (a personal friend of Osterrieth’s) to make, even if he was not prepared to go the whole way and admit what Osterrieth was doing with the tissue cultures. However, African assistants who were working at the LMS, one of them in Osterrieth’s lab, testify that Osterrieth himself was indeed preparing the polio vaccine there. This process was not complicated, for it simply involved the inoculation of a small quantity of the American-made polio vaccine into chimpanzee tissue culture, to make a larger quantity of new vaccine of higher titer, or concentration. (This is similar to the process of seeding a litre of warm milk with a spoonful of old yogurt, to produce a fresh pot of yogurt.) In short, it is clear that the title of Osterrieth’s article is misleading, and that in reality, vaccine could very readily have been prepared in Stanleyville, just as the lab assistants stated.

Supporting this analysis, I have three significant witnesses who held senior roles with respect to the Stanleyville research programme in the 1950s, and who have told me quite simply that Koprowski’s vaccine was being prepared in the cells of the Lindi chimps. Furthermore, I have eye-witnesses who confirm each individual step of the process, from the extraction of kidneys from an anaesthetised but still living chimpanzee (to minimise the risks of bacterial contamination), to the feeding of vaccine that had been made in Osterrieth’s lab to soldiers in the local army camp. Most of these steps are multiply confirmed.

To sum up, I believe there is overwhelming evidence (both documentary and testimonial) to show that Dr Osterrieth is not telling the truth about the work he did at the LMS.

However, in his editorial, Dr Plotkin predicates his entire argument on the assumption that the claims in Osterrieth’s “Fact versus fiction” article should be treated as gospel truth, and therefore as an irrevocable disproof of my claim that CHAT vaccine was being prepared locally, and in chimpanzee cells. Let me now address some of the specific scientific claims made in the Vaccine editorial. Unlike several of Dr Plotkin’s previous contributions on this subject, this article is written in seemingly restrained and reasonable language. However, that title, “Chimpanzees and journalists” gives some sense of the aggression that is bubbling beneath the surface.

[In each case below, I indicate the paragraph of the editorial in which the initial claim appears. I list some appropriate supporting references at the end of this letter.]

a) [Paragraph 2] Plotkin’s assertion that the “physical evidence” presented at two conferences on the origins of HIV-1, held at London and Rome, “was all against the OPV hypothesis” is a falsehood. To explain why, I need first to provide some brief background about those meetings, both of which (though the Plotkin camp might deny it) were convened in direct response to a reawakening of public and scientific interest in the OPV hypothesis, after The River was published in 1999.

The Society meeting held in London in 2000 was carefully choreographed by the above-mentioned doctors, Weiss and Wain-Hobson, in order to present an apparent victory for the medical powers-that-be, and a come-uppance for myself – and was so reported in most press outlets. (Bill Hamilton, who had initially proposed this conference to the Royal Society, was also scheduled to be a co-organiser, but sadly he died before the meeting took place.) Before the conference, the list of speakers was adapted in order to overcome the objections of doctors Plotkin, Koprowski, Hahn and Korber, who had otherwise threatened to boycott the meeting. Dr Weiss insisted that only one epidemiologist (Dr Kevin De Cock, a collaborator of Dr Hahn’s) should be allowed as a full speaker, and at the end of the meeting, Weiss delivered a profoundly biased closing speech.

At the Rome meeting a year later (also initially proposed by Bill Hamilton) I was asked to speak in his place, which was a great honour. Here, the balance of speakers was much fairer. Yet Dr Weiss had again been invited in order to give the closing comments, and again his analysis was one-sided, simply ignoring most of the new information I had presented. I was so disgusted that I found myself rising from my chair and walking out.

In reality, not one single piece of “physical evidence” against the OPV theory was presented at either of these conferences.

None the less, let me examine the evidence that was presented. At the Royal Society meeting, various scientists reported the testing of five or six different American-made pools of the suspect polio vaccine, CHAT, which had belatedly been released by Koprowski’s former institute, the Wistar. They found these CHAT samples to be free of HIV-1, chimpanzee SIV, and chimp DNA – and their negative results were undoubtedly accurately reported. However, doctors Plotkin and Koprowski then falsely claimed that these were the same vaccines that had been used in Africa. In fact, none of these vaccine samples had ever been near Africa, and neither were they from the same vaccine batches that were used in Africa. (A batch represents vaccine made in a single production run. Therefore every vaccine batch is considered homogenous, which cannot be said of every vaccine pool.)

My suspicions about this crucial detail were confirmed in early 2001, when I returned to Africa for eight weeks, and discovered that batches of CHAT vaccine had been locally prepared in Stanleyville/Kisangani. Put simply, the original vaccine had been regrown locally in the cells and sera of common chimpanzees, hundreds of which were available (supposedly merely for testing polio vaccine safety) at Lindi camp. I have since learnt that in the late 1950s it was standard practice for recipient laboratories in places like Europe, Africa and Asia to regrow American-produced polio vaccines in locally available tissue culture cells. This had the effect of boosting both quantity and also titer, or concentration. (However, in the case of the Stanleyville research, there may also have been an experimental aspect to the work.)

Plotkin, Koprowski and Osterrieth have stated that my claims that CHAT was prepared locally in Stanleyville are based on the memories of unreliable African technicians, who didn’t know what was going on. I find this (to say the least) quite condescending. However, since my 2001 trip, further (senior, non-African) sources have confirmed this crucial detail about local preparation in Stanleyville, and it is now apparent that the majority of the CHAT vaccine used in Africa (with the exception of a final campaign in Burundi, which occurred at the start of 1960) was locally prepared.

(One further related point. Plotkin claims that since The River was published, “the author seems to have abandoned the idea that contamination occurred in Philadelphia and now postulates wildcat production of CHAT in chimpanzee cells in Stanleyville”. What he fails to say is that my initial belief that the vaccine could only have been made in America or Europe was based almost exclusively on assurances provided by himself and Dr Koprowski, and by doctors Osterrieth and Ninane from the LMS. I can now prove that significant parts of the information provided by these doctors in their early interviews was deliberately misleading. I detected much of this false testimony before The River was published in 1999, but as I say, only obtained confirmation that vaccine had been locally prepared in chimp cells in 2001.)

b) [Paragraph 2] Plotkin, Hahn and Korber claim that the ancestor of HIV-1 existed in or around 1931, long before the polio vaccine trials. However, this is pseudo-science, using a false model to “calculate” the age of the virus. (More than any other organism known to medical science, HIV-1 evolves through recombination, a process whereby two different strains of the virus meet inside a cell – either in a living host, or else in a tissue culture in a laboratory – and exchange genetic material to produce an entirely new progeny. Some have described this process as “viral sex”. 90% of HIV-1’s evolution occurs through recombination, and only 10% through mutation, an entirely different process. Yet the dating techniques of the geneticists like Korber are able to measure only mutation. The geneticists’ claims that they can date the age of the HIVs by theoretical calculations are, quite simply, spurious.)

[Paragraph 2] Plotkin claims that “the chimpanzees available to the [Stanleyville] research team in the late 1950s, had they been infected with SIV, would have been infected by strains distant from HIV-1”, but this is pure speculation.

Plotkin and Hahn both assert that the true ancestor of pandemic HIV-1 is found only in one sub-species of the common chimp, Pan troglodytes troglodytes [ptt], the range of which begins 800 miles west of Kisangani/Stanleyville. It is true that the genetic analysis of chimp SIVs that has been published to date suggests that SIV-infected Ptt chimps seem to have a virus that is normally about 10% closer genetically to pandemic HIV-1 than the SIV of the Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii [Pts] chimps that are found near Stanleyville/Kisangani. However, fewer than 1 in 200 chimp troops from central Africa have been sampled, and all the sampling carried out to date has been done either by Beatrice Hahn or her collaborators. There is evidence to suggest that certain interesting results that do not fit with her overall thesis may not have been published.

Furthermore, this entire line of enquiry may well be irrelevant. Firstly, because I have recently located a document that proves what I had long suspected from anecdotal accounts: that the Ptt sub-species of chimps was also present among the research animals used at Stanleyville. The second reason is that if pandemic HIV-1 arose through recombination between different chimp SIV strains, as appears increasingly likely, then the SIVs from either sub-species (Ptt or Pts), or indeed both sub-species, could have provided the necessary ingredients.

Lastly, Dr Plotkin raises doubts about whether the Stanleyville chimps would have been SIV-infected. However, roughly 13% of wild chimpanzees (both Ptt and Pts) seem to be naturally infected with SIV, meaning that approximately 50 of the chimps that were specifically used for the polio research are likely to have been SIV-infected upon arrival at Lindi camp. Co-caging and group caging of chimps were practised at both Lindi and the LMS research hangar, which would have readily allowed onward transmission of SIVs, whether from Pts or Ptt, to further chimpanzees of either sub-species.

d) [Paragraph 1] Plotkin writes that: “A correlation between locations where CHAT was administered and early possible cases of AIDS was also proposed [by Hooper], though the supposed correlation was later heavily criticised.” The claims by Dr De Cock that there was no epidemiological linkage between the vaccinations and the first appearances of HIV-1 and AIDS were inherently slanted, and all the more so because he inexplicably excluded the vaccinations in Ruanda-Urundi, which made up two-thirds of the total, from his analysis. Plotkin’s own analysis of the data was indeed heavily critical of me, but it was also highly revealing, being littered with mistakes, which served to show both his bias and his ignorance of African geography.

An experienced statistician has since looked at the raw data, and concluded that the correlations between CHAT vaccinations and early HIV-1 are “highly significant” (meaning there is a chance of less than 1 in 1,000 that the findings result from coincidence), and those between the vaccinations and early AIDS are “significant” (a less than 1 in 100 chance of coincidence). These two quite separate epidemiological confirmations are immensely important, and the work will be published soon.

e) [Paragraph 3] Plotkin claims that virologists who visited the LMS in the 1950s state that “Osterrieth’s attempts at simian cell culture [ie making tissue culture] post-date the vaccination campaign in which HIV-transfer supposedly occurred.” Yet information obtained from Pierre Doupagne in Belgium, and his assistant in Africa indicates the opposite. They claim that they were preparing chimp cultures from 1956 (the year Lindi camp opened) at latest, and supplying them to Osterrieth. Furthermore, one of Osterrieth’s assistants states that Osterrieth was making polio vaccine in the weeks immediately preceding the key vaccination campaign in Ruzizi (which occurred in February to April 1958).

f) [Paragraph 4] Plotkin suggests that technicians and other persons working at the LMS may have confused “diluting a [vaccine] stock made in Philadelphia” with “making new vaccine”. Again, this is disingenuous and misleading. Both contemporary articles and the personal diary of one of the vaccinators reveal that dilution of the CHAT vaccine in Africa took place not in the lab, but in the field, on the morning that the vaccine was to be used. Later, Plotkin writes that: “Those scientists with a technical background sufficient to make the distinction [between diluting vaccine and making vaccine] are unanimous in doubting that a vaccine could have been produced [in Stanleyville].” This claim is absurd. Growing polio vaccine virus in local tissue culture is not a difficult process, provided that all lab tools and glassware are kept sterile. Killed polio vaccines were being produced locally in Africa in the cells of local primates from 1953 onwards, and live vaccines were being similarly produced from 1955 onwards. One of the places where both types of vaccine were being produced was the small veterinary lab of Gabu, in the same Congolese province as Stanleyville. The vaccine-maker was an inconoclastic Polish vet called Alexandre Jezierski, with whose work both Koprowski and his Belgian collaborators were familiar, from (respectively) 1955 and 1954 onwards.

g) [Paragraph 5] Plotkin states that “Although the journalist in question will never abandon his ideas, they have not been confirmed, and it is unfortunate that they have hindered eradication of polio by OPV in Africa.” The latter claim, just like similar claims by Dr Koprowski, is false, and is part of a smear campaign designed to present me as the villain of the piece. Different peoples in Africa have been refusing to accept vaccines since the beginning of the last century, and refusing polio vaccines since at least the 1970s. The reasons given are various, and include fears that the vaccines are contaminated with substances such as “family planning drugs”, “cancer” and “AIDS”. Plotkin and Koprowski’s claims are pure fabrication, for not one of the articles they cite actually blames vaccine refusal on my work. Indeed, one of the articles cited by Koprowski does not even exist! In reality, the recent rejection of polio vaccines in northern Nigeria seems to have been largely based on religio-cultural-political concerns following 9/11.

Furthermore, virologists with whom I have spoken believe that for a variety of technical reasons, complete eradication of poliovirus from the planet may prove to be extremely difficult. It may therefore suit the interests of certain scientists to try to blame the failure to eradicate polio (which was originally scheduled for year 2000) on myself. I should perhaps add that in all my public statements on this issue, I have always stressed that: “as far as is known, modern polio vaccines are safe.”

Dr Plotkin asserts that “[t]he journalist in question will never abandon his ideas”, but again he is wrong. I am perfectly prepared to abandon my “ideas” if Dr Plotkin or others ever produce a single piece of compelling proof to refute the OPV theory. Up to now, all Dr Plotkin has managed to produce is a mixture of indignation, sloppy science, and false testimonies. There is now so much evidence of false reporting by Plotkin and his collaborators, and by some of the sources he quotes, that no impartial observer could reasonably explain away all the instances as “honest mistakes” or the product of “faulty memories”. It is now quite clear that a deliberate cover-up is underway.

In the last seven years this cover-up has been greatly assisted by scientific friends and colleagues of Plotkin and Koprowski, some of whom are quite innocently inclined to “take their word for it”. The cover-up has also been assisted by certain defensive virologists and public health officials who believe that an attack on the safety of any vaccine, even an experimental vaccine used only in the late 1950s, constitutes an attack on the safety of vaccination per se.

A major role in the process has been played by the two main pillars of scientific enquiry, Nature and Science, which over the last seven years have regularly published (to great fanfare) new “disproofs” and “refutations” of the OPV theory, not one of which has stood up scientifically. Yet these journals steadfastly refuse to publish the responses of those (including myself) who think differently, or even to allow the theory they are so determined to refute to be laid out, just once, in their pages.

It is surely no coincidence that all major coverage of AIDS in Nature is channelled through Robin Weiss, while major AIDS coverage in Science is apparently routed through another committed defender of Koprowski, Jon Cohen.

– o –

I have already written far more than I intended to write. Apart from supplying some supporting references (mainly essays from my web-site, which themselves cite a wide range of references), I will now bring this response to a close.

One thing I should make clear, however, is that I am fully familiar with the libel laws, and that I can support the claims made in this letter.

Dr Plotkin has tried threatening me legally on two occasions, and his old boss, Dr Koprowski, has done so on three occasions. On each occasion, I responded robustly, and never heard from them again.

In reality, these two men will never carry through a legal suit against me, because they are fully aware (a) that even if I had to finance it myself, I would go to court to fight them; (b) that they would not win such a court case; and (c) that so much information directly confounding their claims would come to light that the event would almost certainly arouse considerable media interest.

Their technique, instead, is quietly to pressure people such as television executives, film festival organisers, book publishers and journal publishers with letters of the type you have received, letters which falsely seek to present the debate as one that they have already won, and letters which (in the past at least) have often hinted at the possibility of legal action. Using such clandestine approaches, they have achieved a surprising degree of success in promoting their own fabricated versions of history, and suppressing the OPV theory.

I believe that such smoke and mirrors techniques have traditionally been used in the past by certain corporations, such as those that have been determined to promote the safety of cigarette-smoking, or to present the concept of global warming as a myth.

I estimate that I get to hear about only some 20% to 30% of such approaches – but whenever I have the time, I try – as here – to provide appropriate counter-evidence.

If you do wish to have further details, I would be willing to cooperate, and could, if required, supply supporting material for the claims made in this letter. However, I’m afraid I could only do this if I were paid professional rates for my time. I am 100% independent in my research, and I have placed a lot of my written material in the public domain so that it is feely available, for instance on my web-site, www.aidsorigins.com. However, I am currently busy with my own work, and so would need to charge for any further hours or days spent following up this issue on your behalf.

I hope that this discussion of the Plotkin documents has been of assistance to you.

With best wishes,

Yours sincerely,

Edward Hooper

References

(all of which can be found on www.aidsorigins.com):

1) A response to the alleged scientific “disproofs” of the OPV theory that are claimed by Dr Plotkin and his collaborators:

“The latest scientific evidence strongly supports the OPV theory”,E. Hooper; January 2005.

2) An analysis of the slanted nature of the debate at the Royal Society:

The Politics of a Scientific Meeting: The Origin-of-AIDS Debate at the Royal Society , B. Martin, Politics and the Life Sciences 20 (2) 119-130 (September 2005).

3) A response to Dr Plotkin’s claims that The River has endangered the global polio eradication campaign:

“As far as is known, modern polio vaccines are safe”, E. Hooper; February 2004.

4) My latest article responding to Dr Beatrice Hahn’s claims that she has discovered the “source” of HIV-1:

“The Hollywooding of Science”, E. Hooper; August 2006.

5) If proved, the OPV theory might spark a billion-dollar class-action law suit. For this and other reasons, there are genuine concerns that one of Dr Plotkin’s supporters might be tempted to fabricate “evidence” in a bid to support his position. In the following article, I highlight the genuine concerns that one of these scientists might be tempted to cheat in a big way.

“Three warnings about potential future malpractice by members of ‘the bushmeat group’”, E. Hooper; August 2006.

6) In this article, I describe how, in 2001, doctors collaborating with Stanley Plotkin smuggled highly relevant 1950s biopsy and autopsy samples out of Kisangani (formerly Stanleyville); nothing has been heard of them since.

“The annexing of the Stanleyville samples”, E. Hooper; November 2004.

The Seeds of Doom

A new drama documentary about the origins of AIDS.

The Seeds of Doom
Story of a controversial theory about the origin of AIDS

The author and performer of this one-man play, Christian Biasco, is a 33-year-old Italian-speaking Swiss man who is taking a DEA (which falls somewhere between a Masters and a PhD) in the History of Medicine at the University of Geneva. After first coming across the origins-of-AIDS controversy in 2001, he decided to choose this as his specialist topic, and as the subject of his dissertation.

He also decided to write a play on the subject, “The Seeds of Doom”, which he has performed in over 30 venues in Switzerland and northern Italy in the last three years, eliciting warm praise and considerable interest among those who have seen it. Christian refers to it as a “drama-documentary”, and whenever possible he takes questions from the audience after the performance.

Continue reading “The Seeds of Doom”

Three Warnings About Potential Future Malpractice by Members of “the Bushmeat Group”

Updated 13/08/06

I trust that my response to Beatrice Hahn’s latest article “The Hollywooding of Science” has not only restored some balance in the “origins of AIDS” debate, but that it has highlighted the flimsy nature of some of the claims that are routinely made by key advocates of the bushmeat hypothesis.

Some of the more common of these flawed claims are that Lindi camp used the “wrong subspecies” of chimpanzee, and that phylogenetic dating analysis “proves” that pandemic HIV-1 existed in the 1930s, long before the polio vaccine trials. Of course, the most common claim of all by the Hahns is that they have “laid to rest” the OPV hypothesis. But not one of these claims stand up to scrutiny.

Continue reading “Three Warnings About Potential Future Malpractice by Members of “the Bushmeat Group””

Science Magazine Rejects Yet Another Submission

“Science” magazine rejects yet another submission that opposes the bushmeat hypothesis of AIDS origin.

On June 6th, 2006, I submitted the following letter (“The Origins of Pandemic HIV-1: A Different Hypothesis”) to “Science” magazine, in response to Keele and Hahn’s paper about Cameroonian chimp SIVs, published in late May in Science express.

This letter contains 300 words, the maximum permitted by Science for letters to the editor, and I also submitted a version at 358 words, which included some material about the flimsy nature of the phylogenetic dating of HIV-1.

On June 9th, I received a rejection note from “Science editorial” by e-mail. It did not afford the possibility of discussion or reply.

Given the history of rejection by Science and Nature of all submissions which question the hegemony of the bushmeat hypothesis of origin, this latest rejection letter is perhaps not surprising.

What is worrying about it, however, is that these two magazines have consistently declined to publish any article setting out the OPV/AIDS theory, and yet have repeatedly published (with brash headlines and great fanfare) articles, letters and opinion pieces which falsely claim that the OPV theory has “died its final death”, or that it has been refuted or disproved.

I find this obsession with allegedly “disproving” a hypothesis which they have never even published to be rather revealing.

Viewed within that context, one can only conclude that on this, one of the most vital biomedical issues of the last hundred years, Science magazine, just like Nature magazine, is determined to present only a distorted and politically acceptable version of the truth to its readership.

A most depressing conclusion.

Ed Hooper. 27/07/06.


The Origins of Pandemic HIV-1: A Different Hypothesis.

Dear Sir/Madam,

The ongoing SIV testing of wild chimpanzees by investigators Keele, Hahn and colleagues is welcome. However, under 0.5% of central African chimp troops have been sampled, which raises doubts about their certainty that the Pan troglodytes troglodytes (Ptt) SIVs from south-eastern Cameroon represent the ancestral “reservoir”, or “source”, of pandemic HIV-1.[1]

But even if they’re correct, their data seem as supportive of the oral polio vaccine (OPV) theory of AIDS origin as of their bushmeat theory.

They posit an infected chimp-hunter or bushmeat-seller who sparks no local outbreaks, but who instead travels down the Sangha and Congo rivers, across 650 miles and two national boundaries, and delivers the virus to Leopoldville, where they believe the AIDS pandemic was “spawned”.

Others, however, might visualise Ptt chimpanzees being transported 1050 miles down the Sangha to Coquilhatville (Mbandaka) district, and up the Congo (again: two steamer journeys and two national boundaries), to arrive at the Laboratoire Medical de Stanleyville (LMS), or at nearby Lindi camp, where experiments with CHAT OPV were conducted in 400-odd chimps in the 1950s. These were mostly Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii (whose SIVs appear, thus far, less closely related to pandemic HIV-1). However, chimp purchases by LMS scientists apparently sparked an influx from downriver, and the sparse remaining records reveal one chimp from Coquilhatville, and one Ptt, at Lindi and the LMS.[2] Co-caging and group-caging were routine at both places.

Hahn’s new Ptt SIVs from Cameroon are closer to pandemic HIV-1 than previously-tested SIVs, but are hardly “dead ringers”, as she claims.[3] A likelier explanation for bridging the genetic gap between the viruses is recombination in vitro in Stanleyville between SIVs infecting tissue cultures (comprising chimpanzee cells and sera) used locally to prepare CHAT, or in vivo recombination – either in Lindi chimps, or CHAT vaccinees from 31 known African trials.[4]

Yours faithfully

E.J. Hooper

References

[1] B.F. Keele, B.H. Hahn et al., “Chimpanzee Reservoirs of Pandemic and Nonpandemic HIV-1”, [Science Express: 10.1126/science.1126531]; P. M. Sharp, “Where AIDS Came From” [Webcast]; 13th Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections; Denver, CO, USA; February 5-8th, 2006.

[2] F. Deinhardt, Lindi Databook, 1959. M.M. Vastesaeger et al.; “L’atherosclerose experimentale du chimpanze. Recherches preliminaires”; Acta Cardiol.; 1965; Supp. II; 283-297.

[3] “The Age of AIDS”, PBS documentary, 2006. M. Carmichael, “How it began: HIV before the age of AIDS”; PBS web-site: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/aids/virus/origins.html.

[4] “The Origins of AIDS”; MFP/Galafilm documentary, 2004. E. Hooper, “The source of pandemic AIDS? Beatrice Hahn’s latest SIV sequences from Cameroonian chimps: an alternative interpretation”; www.aidsorigins.com.

[NB. The latter essay was an early version of “The Hollywooding of Science”, available on this web-site.

Welcome to AIDS Origins

Welcome to www.aidsorigins.com, the site hosted by Ed Hooper that seeks to provide impartial and uncensored information about the origins of the AIDS pandemic. For a brief introduction to the origins of AIDS debate, see below:


There would be no need for this site to exist, were it not for the fact that it is increasingly obvious that a small group of eminent and influential mainstream scientists are willing to countenance only one version of events about how AIDS began – a version which is scientifically and historically flawed, but which serves the interests of certain powerful political groupings, and a large portion of the "vaccination fraternity".

I believe that this official version of events is wrong.

In 1999 I wrote a book, The River, which proposed the hypothesis that AIDS might be iatrogenic (caused by physicians), and that scientists might have unwittingly started the pandemic through an experimental oral polio vaccine (OPV) administered in central Africa in the 1950s. That book touched more buttons than I had anticipated, for it sparked a major cover-up among those who had been involved with making the vaccine, and among powerful interest groups within the medical community.

The attempted whitewash persuaded me to continue my researches. I have now been exclusively researching AIDS for 20 years, and its origins for 16. And whereas I was 95% persuaded of the merits of the vaccine theory when The River was published in 1999, I am now (in 2006) 99.9% persuaded that this is how AIDS began.

Continue reading “Welcome to AIDS Origins”

Beatrice Hahn. A Portrait of Scientific Certainty

Beatrice Hahn. A Portrait of Scientific Certainty: Doctor Strangelove in a Silk Shirt.

Beatrice Hahn is a powerful woman, though she is also one who is possibly feared more than respected or liked. Her method of operating is reminiscent of that of her former boss, Robert Gallo, and indeed of Gallo’s mentor, Hilary Koprowski, before that. She is a control freak, and she demands that all who work for her, or in collaboration with her, toe the party line. This makes it easier to control the outgoing message, and indeed she is a past master (or mistress) of subtly adapting her position in order to “absorb” previous inconsistencies, and thus to glide over her own mistakes. By exerting this degree of control, she is able to make it appear (at least to newcomers to the field) that she and only she is fully in command of the facts.

If it suits Hahn to be treated as the fount of all knowledge on how AIDS began, it probably suits the medical establishment as well, many of whose members are scared stiff by the implications of the OPV theory. Indeed, the scientific establishment is set up in such a way to facilitate an intellectual coup of this sort. Peer review (at least as practised by the major journals) allows a situation in which only views that tie in with Hahn’s are broadcast, which is why Nature and Science have repeatedly published alleged “refutations” of the OPV theory, but have never dared publish an article that simply lays out the theory, so that people can decide for themselves where they stand.

It’s hard to know what summarises this policy better: intellectual cowardice, or intellectual totalitarianism. But predictably, my own latest submission to Science (a 300-word letter of response to the latest claims by Hahn’s team) was rejected without any reasons being offered, or the opportunity to respond.

Indeed, Big Science is increasingly run along capitalist lines, with the grant system making it eminently easy for dissident views to be crushed. It seems that such a system cannot easily cope with an independent researcher like myself, someone who cannot be pressured into silence. That’s why, after themselves being stunned into silence for several months after The River was published, members of that establishment [led by Weiss and Wain-Hobson, and including Plotkin, Hahn, Sharp, and Korber] spent months organising a two-day conference on AIDS origins at the Royal Society, which, though Weiss and Wain-Hobson insisted otherwise, was actually devoted to a carefully-orchestrated attempt to consign the OPV theory to the grave. As it happens, they narrowly failed to carry out their burial plans – but only because I was so disgusted by the way I’d been treated that I elected to carry on with my AIDS researches.

Within six months of the Royal Society meeting I had realised that batches of Koprowski’s OPVs had been locally-made in Stanleyville. It’s now six years later, and at this stage I am ready to state one simple thing. I sincerely believe that the evidence in favour of the OPV/AIDS theory is now overwhelming.

Back to Beatrice Hahn. It’s my belief that the Hahn group’s approach to Science is not dissimilar to the way a giant corporation does business, either crushing different or opposing ideas through superior financing or “weight of numbers”, or else absorbing them quickly and quietly within its own sphere of influence. The work of several scientists (for instance in determining that the SIVs of certain African primates other from chimps feature a vpu gene) has first been submitted to Hahn’s group for checking or refereeing, and then later absorbed, and eventually published under the Hahn imprimatur, with the new revelation lent her own personal bushmeat spin.

Nowadays the official (and surprisingly oft-repeated) party line is that it was Hahn who discovered that HIV-1 had evolved from the SIV of the common chimpanzee. Of course, this is nonsense. The similarities between the two viruses were first reported by Martine Peeters in 1989, and the first chimp SIV sequence was published by Simon Wain-Hobson in 1990. Hahn first published on this subject a decade later, in 1999, when she proposed that it was not just common chimps, but Pan troglodytes troglodytes chimps, which represented the ancestral host. (Though Hahn claims otherwise, this is still unproven.) Nowadays Peeters frequently appears as a Hahn co-author, even if she is one of the few members of that team to inspire confidence, in that she is one of its more thoughtful and less ego-driven members. Wain-Hobson has his own views on Hahn, and although he prefers not to antagonise her, he generally prefers to keep his distance.

All this, of course, helps explain why Beatrice Hahn so hated having to deal with a hypothesis of origin contrary to her own, especially when it was proposed vigorously, and by someone who, in her eyes at least, was a “non-scientist”. Even with the help and compliance of leading journals like Science (where AIDS news coverage seems to be determined mainly by their ubiquitous reporter and bushmeat believer, Jon Cohen) and Nature (the AIDS coverage of which is controlled by another bushmeat believer, Robin Weiss), she has been forced to announce on at least three separate occasions that she has “refuted”, or “laid to rest” the OPV theory of origin. Furthermore, she frequently loses her temper on this topic, and has been quoted as referring to the OPV theory as “bullshit”, and to The River as “that fucking book”. It’s nice to know that her way of dealing with opposing views is so considered and mature!

Later on, being the woman she is, she affects contrition, and says she is worried about how others will view her for her outspoken comments. It takes lackeys like John Moore to reassure her: she is still working on exactly the right lines; she is still loved. (My views on Moore are forthright, but justified: he hands out abuse in spades, so must be prepared to be judged in similar terms.)

Hahn has recently let it be known that she regrets how she treated me when I came to interview her in 1995, when she acted with her customary arrogance, and unwillingness to listen to anyone’s views but her own. [See “The River”, pp 647-652.] This rather hilarious affecting of contrition is both insincere, and very typical Beatrice Hahn. The reason I write this with some confidence is that the last time I tried to contact her in a collegiate spirit, in 2003, was to ask some questions of her, questions which she barely answered. In the course of the e-mail, I floated the possibility that chimp SIVs might have recombined in tissue culture to produce the ancestral strains of HIV-1, and she responded as follows: “You are obviously entitled to having [sic] an opinion and to express that opinion in any way you want, but don’t kid yourself (or others) that you have the necessary scientific background and expertise to make a judgement call in this matter.” Since on such issues I regularly consult a number of scientists whom I consider to have judgement as good as, if not better than, Dr Hahn, I did find this comment to be revealing of how she responds to alternative viewpoints.

(Later, in 2005, I twice contacted one of Hahn’s assistants, Brandon Keele, offering him a little collaborative input about the DRC, and once again asking him about the results of their lab’s SIV testing in chimps in the DRC. He did not even bother to reply. This was not only bad manners, but also worrying. Hahn’s group – and other groups – have been testing DRC chimps for SIV for years now, and yet have reported nothing of their results, other than Michael Worobey’s single sequence of chimp SIV from the Parisi Forest, near Stanleyville, which he and Hahn cynically and misleadingly announced as a “refutation” of the OPV theory. This lack of public announcement only encourages the perception that the reporting of chimp SIVs in Africa may be selective.)

But Hahn’s recently reported “contrition” is also shallow, for it suggests that she believes that I have opposed her for the last ten years out of pique. The real reason, as anyone who follows this website will know, is because I believe that she is rather often a complacent and less-than-rigorous scientist.

Indeed, I think her certainties (most of which involve areas which are anything but certain) are potentially very dangerous.

I am not alone in believing that Professor Beatrice Hahn may be the stuff of nightmares: Bad Science tidily presented,T.(BDoctor Strangelove in a silk shirt.

Here are some of the areas in the origins of AIDS debate where Hahn insists she is right, but where I (on the basis of what I have learnt during the sixteen years that I have spent pursuing this subject) have the temerity to believe that she is profoundly wrong.

These are Beatrice Hahn’s three alleged “disproofs” of the OPV theory.

“Disproof” #1
Hahn and her collaborators have frequently claimed that the chimps used in the polio experiments in Stanleyville/Kisangani were of “the wrong subspecies”, and that this effectively refutes the OPV hypothesis. (Their latest claim that “the source” of pandemic HIV-1 lies in south-eastern Cameroon is only an extension of the same argument.)

But the documentary proof that there was at least one Pan troglodytes troglodytes [Ptt] among the chimpanzee experimentees at the Laboratoire Medical de Stanleyville destroys this argument at a stroke.

In fact, there is new evidence suggesting that Ptt chimps may have been at Lindi camp from the beginning. I am still finding out further details about this, and, if appropriate, will publish more when the time is ripe.

“Disproof” #2
Together with collaborators of hers such as Stanley Plotkin and Hilary Koprowski (the men from the Wistar Institute in Philadelphia who developed CHAT oral polio vaccine, and helped supervise the African trials of that vaccine) Hahn has frequently claimed that representative samples of CHAT vaccine have been independently tested – and found completely free of HIV, SIV and chimpanzee DNA.

Those findings were correct. But unfortunately for Hahn and Plotkin, they did not constitute a disproof of the OPV theory. By mid-2002 I had obtained multiply-confirmed evidence (based on personal testimonies and archival documents) that batches of CHAT vaccine had been prepared locally in Stanleyville, grown in tissue cultures based on chimpanzee kidney cells (and, it seems almost certain, chimpanzee sera).[6]

However, the phials of CHAT vaccine that Stanley Plotkin arranged to have tested all originated from the Wistar, not from the LMS. In short, they tested the wrong batches of vaccine. Of course, as I now realise, Plotkin and Koprowski must have been fully aware of this at the time that they were arranging the testing. But I wasn’t.

Does any of the CHAT vaccine prepared at the LMS still exist? I believe that samples may still exist, and that if they do, they would probably be stored in certain freezers in the USA and Belgium. Will any of these samples ever be released for independent testing? On this one, your guess is as good as mine – though I have a pretty strong hunch that they will not be.

“Disproof” #3
In 2000, Sharp and Hahn (and other collaborators, such as Bette Korber) began claiming that “phylogenetic dating” proved that the AIDS virus had first emerged in about 1931, plus or minus roughly ten years – in other words, more than a decade before the OPV trials in Africa.

Again, it was balderdash. Phylogenetic trees are very useful, and can be expected to be roughly as accurate as human family trees (provided one accepts that the latter occasionally feature some mistakes). But attempting to date HIV-1 by phylogenetic analysis is completely different.

Estimating the rate of mutation of an organism works pretty well for most organisms, or indeed for DNA-based viruses like smallpox. But it does not work for the SIVs and HIVs, which belong to a particular group of RNA-based viruses called retroviruses. In fact, the immunodeficiency viruses are the most recombinogenic organisms (ie the life-forms most prone to recombination) known to medical science. Recombination is ten times more significant than mutation in the evolution of HIV and SIV. And yet phylogenetic dating (which is predicated on a constant “molecular clock”, beating like a metronome) assumes oonly mutation.

The molecular clock approach is inherently incapable of making any allowance for recombination. All the geneticists can do is try to exclude from their analysis any viruses that look as if they might be recombinants. But if those recombinants were formed early in the evolution of HIV-1 (as I believe the key ones were in this instance), then the geneticists are simply unable to identify, or exclude them.

Korber and others have further argued that when they enter the earliest (“1959”) sample of HIV-1 on their graphs, its date is accurately predicted. Once again, however, they are wrong. Multiple evidence, to be revealed in due course, indicates that the famous “1959 sample” of HIV-1 from Leopoldville was actually not obtained in 1959 at all, but at some point between 1960 and 1963. If one takes the latest option (1963) as the true date of this earliest sample (as indeed one must do, failing the appearance of further accurate information), this sequence now falls outside Korber’s 95% confidence intervals, which range from 1934 to 1962. In other words, the date of the first HIV-1 sample is no longer correctly predicted by her method.

In short, the geneticists have not only used the wrong model in their attempts to date HIV-1. They have also used inappropriate measuring apparatus, and have simply crossed their fingers and hoped (or pretended) that it works.

It’s as if Hahn and her friends were using a thermometer or a rain-gauge to try to estimate the speed of one of those huge river-ferries of the 1950s, working its way up the Congo river. I find it rather enjoyable to look over their shoulders and watch as they try to pull off this scientific sleight-of-hand.

But hang on. What’s that? Over there in the shade, behind the wheel-house? Yes, in that cage, isn’t there something moving, something dark? Isn’t it an animal, covered in fur?

EH 26/07/06